Football Predictions Today

Model-driven 1X2, over/under, BTTS and correct-score probabilities for every fixture we cover — built from expected-goals ratings and de-vigged market odds, never from tips.

21matches today 3high confidence 7positive edges 6strong edges updated 2026-10-13T16:17:05Z UTC · kickoffs in your local time

Our engine has priced 21 of today's 21 fixtures across 8 competitions and disagrees with the bookmakers enough to flag 7 value picks. An edge is a statement about price, not about the result: a pick with a large edge still loses most of the time when its probability is low. The widest gap today: Atletico Madrid v Manchester United, where the model rates Atletico Madrid 57% against the market's 50%. Every number on this page comes from the same two inputs — xG-based team ratings and de-vigged bookmaker odds — so you can check our work on any methodology claim.

First kick-offs: 18:45 Wolverhampton Wanderers v Bolton 18:45 Cardiff v Watford 18:45 Burnley v Charlton

Top model opportunities today

picks with an analysis page first, then largest model-vs-market edge on the 1X2 pick

UEFA Champions League 19:00

Atletico Madridv

Manchester United

1 Pick: Atletico Madrid High

Model: 57%
Market: 50%
Edge: +6.9%
Best odds: 1.98

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UEFA Champions League 19:00

Villarrealv

Napoli

1 Pick: Villarreal High

Model: 50%
Market: 46%
Edge: +3.8%
Best odds: 2.19

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Primera A 23:30

Bucaramangav

Águilas Doradas

1 Pick: Bucaramanga Low

Model: 70%
Market: 46%
Edge: +23.8%
Best odds: 2.05

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Liga de Expansión MX 23:00

Tapatíov

Tepatitlán

1 Pick: Tapatío Low

Model: 73%
Market: 60%
Edge: +13.2%
Best odds: 1.57

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The strongest pick that already has an analysis page leads, so a larger edge listed here may simply be waiting for its fixture to enter our publication window.

Model vs market — value signals today

edge = model probability minus de-vigged market probability

7positive edges ≥ 2%

6strong edges ≥ 5%

+11.2%avg positive edge

1.80avg best price on picks

21fixtures with a model pick

Today at a glance

Highest win probability Arsenal v Lille Arsenal · 75% Highest BTTS probability RasenBallsport Leipzig v PSV Eindhoven 83% both teams score Most goals expected RasenBallsport Leipzig v PSV Eindhoven 85% over 2.5 Top value pick Atletico Madrid v Manchester United +6.9% edge Biggest market move Viking v Bayern Munich home 19.41 ▲ +1.41

All matches today

53 fixtures · 32 already played

Time	League	Match	Pick	Prob	Market	Edge	Conf	Best odds
18:45	England Championship	Wolverhampton WanderersvBolton England Championship	1	64.2%	68%	-14.9%	Low	1.45
18:45	England Championship	CardiffvWatford England Championship	1	60.5%	57%	+12.1%	Low	1.72
18:45	England Championship	BurnleyvCharlton England Championship	1	55.8%	58%	-7.8%	Low	1.68
18:45	England Championship	Bristol CityvBlackburn England Championship	1	43.7%	46%	-7.7%	Low	2.16
18:45	England Championship	MillwallvSwansea England Championship	1	36.2%	39%	-11.6%	Low	2.50
18:45	England Championship	WrexhamvWest Brom England Championship	1	37.9%	41%	-11.4%	Low	2.42
18:45	Scotland Championship	Queen's ParkvInverness CT Scotland Championship	2	55.7%	56%	+0.2%	Low	1.76
19:00	England Championship	BirminghamvPreston England Championship	1	63.3%	64%	-3.9%	Low	1.50
19:00	England Championship	Stoke CityvMiddlesbrough England Championship	2	43.6%	47%	-15.2%	Low	2.05
19:00	UEFA Champions League	ArsenalvLille UEFA Champions League	1	75.5%	80%	-17.4%	High	1.23
19:00	UEFA Champions League	RasenBallsport LeipzigvPSV Eindhoven UEFA Champions League	1	54.8%	60%	-20.5%	Medium	1.65
19:00	UEFA Champions League	IntervClub Brugge KV UEFA Champions League	1	67.3%	77%	-38.0%	Medium	1.27
19:00	UEFA Champions League	Atletico MadridvManchester United UEFA Champions League	1	51.3%	50%	+6.9%	High	1.98
19:00	UEFA Champions League	VillarrealvNapoli UEFA Champions League	1	46.7%	46%	+3.8%	High	2.19
19:00	UEFA Champions League	GalatasarayvBarcelona UEFA Champions League	2	70.2%	74%	-16.4%	Medium	1.33
19:00	UEFA Champions League	VikingvBayern Munich UEFA Champions League	2	70.9%	86%	-62.0%	Medium	1.14
19:15	Algeria Ligue 1	USM AlgervJS Saoura Algeria Ligue 1	1	57.0%	60%	-13.9%	Low	1.55
20:00	Botola Pro	FUS RabatvRaja Casablanca Botola Pro	2	39.8%	37%	+10.7%	Low	2.62
22:30	Brazil Serie B	Athletic ClubvLondrina Brazil Serie B	1	49.3%	47%	+7.6%	Low	2.01
23:00	Liga de Expansión MX	TapatíovTepatitlán Liga de Expansión MX	1	63.3%	60%	+13.2%	Low	1.57
23:30	Primera A	BucaramangavÁguilas Doradas Primera A	1	52.3%	46%	+23.8%	Low	2.05
4-2 FT	Brazil Serie A	RB BragantinovCruzeiro Brazil Serie A	1	40.6%	44%	-15.2%	Low	2.18
1-0 FT	Brazil Serie B	Botafogo SPvCeara Brazil Serie B	1	42.5%	45%	-9.7%	Low	2.11
1-1 FT	1. Lig	BandırmasporvSivasspor 1. Lig	1	47.8%	44%	+15.9%	Low	2.18
0-1 FT	Kosovo Superliga	BallkanivDrita Kosovo Superliga	1	40.6%	43%	-10.1%	Low	2.15
0-0 FT	Uganda Premier League	LugazivBUL Uganda Premier League	2	52.9%	54%	-6.0%	Low	1.67
0-2 FT	Uganda Premier League	NtugasazevKCCA Uganda Premier League	2	49.0%	—	—	Low	—
3-0 FT	Egypt Premier League	National Bank of EgyptvEl Geish Egypt Premier League	1	44.8%	47%	-8.9%	Low	2.05
1-2 FT	Egypt Premier League	Abu Qair SemadvAsyut Petrol Egypt Premier League	1	38.4%	43%	-17.7%	Low	2.19
1-4 FT	1. Lig	SarıyervBodrum FK 1. Lig	1	45.4%	46%	-1.5%	Low	2.08
0-1 FT	Algeria Ligue 1	US BiskravMC Oran Algeria Ligue 1	1	35.8%	40%	-15.0%	Low	2.35
2-2 FT	Meistriliiga	VaprusvKalju Nomme Meistriliiga	2	51.4%	53%	-7.0%	Low	1.78
2-0 FT	Meistriliiga	LaagrivNõmme United Meistriliiga	1	51.3%	46%	+20.5%	Low	2.05
3-0 FT	Kosovo Superliga	GjilanivDrenica Skënderaj Kosovo Superliga	1	47.5%	49%	-4.6%	Low	1.90
4-2 FT	Kenyan Premier League	GOR MahiavMurang'a SEAL Kenyan Premier League	1	54.8%	63%	-32.1%	Low	1.50
6-1 FT	Tanzania Premier League	SimbavMashujaa Tanzania Premier League	1	78.0%	78%	-0.7%	Low	1.20
0-2 FT	UEFA Champions League	LensvSporting CP UEFA Champions League	1	39.4%	38%	+7.4%	Medium	2.62
2-0 FT	UEFA Champions League	Sabah FAvSlavia Praha UEFA Champions League	2	43.9%	49%	-22.2%	Low	2.02
1-1 FT	Algeria Ligue 1	ASO ChlefvMC Alger Algeria Ligue 1	2	51.3%	49%	+11.0%	Low	1.95
2-2 FT	Egypt Premier League	PetrojetvWadi Degla Egypt Premier League	2	35.4%	35%	+0.4%	Low	2.79
2-1 FT	Egypt Premier League	Al IttihadvEl Gouna FC Egypt Premier League	1	49.1%	49%	-1.1%	Low	2.04
0-2 FT	3. Liga	Hansa RostockvSV Meppen 3. Liga	1	60.5%	61%	-2.0%	Low	1.64
2-0 FT	3. Liga	Rot-Weiß EssenvFortuna Köln 3. Liga	1	58.3%	63%	-17.1%	Low	1.51
2-4 FT	3. Liga	FC SaarbrückenvMSV Duisburg 3. Liga	2	38.1%	37%	+4.1%	Low	2.58
2-2 FT	3. Liga	HavelsevWürzburger Kickers 3. Liga	2	39.9%	41%	-3.0%	Low	2.39
3-2 FT	3. Liga	Stuttgart IIvHoffenheim II 3. Liga	2	42.9%	44%	-5.9%	Low	2.18
1-2 FT	1. Lig	PendiksporvVanspor FK 1. Lig	1	53.0%	53%	-1.1%	Low	1.79
4-0 FT	Superettan	IFK NorrkopingvGIF Sundsvall Superettan	1	80.4%	79%	+4.9%	Low	1.20
1-2 FT	Premier Soccer League	Durban CityvAmazulu Premier Soccer League	1	35.8%	38%	-7.1%	Low	2.50
1-1 FT	Premier Soccer League	Kaizer ChiefsvStellenbosch Premier Soccer League	1	52.7%	55%	-10.6%	Low	1.70
1-4 FT	Premier Soccer League	Richards BayvMamelodi Sundowns Premier Soccer League	2	70.1%	70%	+2.2%	Low	1.36
3-0 FT	Premier Soccer League	Orlando PiratesvTS Galaxy Premier Soccer League	1	78.2%	78%	+1.9%	Low	1.21
2-2 FT	Botola Pro	Renaissance BerkanevCR Khemis Zemamra Botola Pro	1	57.9%	57%	+1.8%	Low	1.62

Upcoming fixtures

First 60 of 73 fixtures on 14 October 2026 · odds are median de-vigged decimals

Costa Rica · Primera División 2 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
00:00	CS CartaginesvPuntarenas FC	1	Low	1.61	4.46	6.49
02:00	San CarlosvInter San Carlos	1	Low	2.43	3.42	3.39

World · CONMEBOL Sudamericana 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
00:30	Boca JuniorsvVasco DA Gama	1	Low	1.98	3.36	5.06

Colombia · Primera A 2 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
01:30	MillonariosvOnce Caldas	1	Low	1.85	3.87	4.94
21:30	JuniorvDeportivo Pereira	1	Low	1.33	6.09	11.85

Kazakhstan · Premier League 2 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
10:00	IrtyshvFC Astana	2	Low	3.80	4.02	2.05
14:00	AtyrauvYelimay Semey	2	Low	3.60	3.66	2.23

Turkey · 1. Lig 4 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
11:30	Batman Petrolsporvİstanbulspor	1	Low	1.79	4.17	4.94
14:00	ÜmraniyesporvBoluspor	1	Low	1.55	4.62	7.23
17:00	AntalyasporvKayserispor	2	Low	3.18	3.57	2.47
17:00	KeçiörengücüvIğdır FK	1	Low	2.06	3.88	3.89

Greece · Super League 2 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
11:45	Olympiakos Piraeus IIvKallithea	2	Low	4.21	3.65	2.05

Kosovo · Superliga 2 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
12:00	FeronikelivLlapi	1	Low	2.32	3.68	3.36
16:00	DukagjinivVushtrria	1	Low	1.26	6.63	17.26

Kenya · Kenyan Premier League 2 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
12:00	Mombasa ElitevHomeboyz	2	Low	3.32	3.24	2.56
12:00	AFC LeopardsvBandari	1	Low	2.19	3.18	4.37

Estonia · Meistriliiga 2 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
13:00	Trans NarvavKuressaare	1	Low	2.17	3.76	3.67
16:00	PaidevTammeka	1	Low	1.81	4.27	4.71

Norway · 1. Division 8 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
13:00	StrommenvAsane	1	Low	2.07	4.22	3.57
17:00	StabaekvSandnes ULF	1	Low	1.52	5.43	6.30
17:00	StromsgodsetvKongsvinger	1	Low	1.97	4.53	3.67
17:00	HaugesundvLyn	1	Low	1.31	7.18	10.13
17:00	SogndalvODD Ballklubb	2	Low	3.26	4.30	2.17
17:00	BrynevRaufoss	1	Low	1.35	6.46	9.74
17:00	hoddvRanheim	2	Low	3.19	4.26	2.22
17:00	MossvEgersund	1	Low	2.28	4.13	3.13

Uganda · Premier League 2 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.
13:00	PolicevSC Villa	2	Low
13:00	Kigezi HomeBoyzvNEC	2	Low

Zambia · Super League 7 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.
13:00	Green EaglesvRed Arrows	X	Low
13:00	Mufulira WanderersvNkwazi	X	Low
13:00	NAPSA StarsvNkana	X	Low
13:00	Nchanga RangersvTrident	X	Low
13:00	Konkola BladesvMan Utd Zambia Academy	1	Low
13:00	Kansanshi DynamosvPower Dynamos	X	Low
13:00	Roan UnitedvZESCO United	1	Low

Czech Republic · Czech Liga 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
16:00	Bohemians 1905vMlada Boleslav	1	Low	2.34	3.77	3.25

World · UEFA Champions League 9 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
16:45	FeyenoordvComo	2	Medium	3.72	4.30	2.01
16:45	Lask LinzvLiverpool	2	Medium	9.87	6.42	1.35
19:00	Manchester CityvParis Saint Germain	1	High	2.28	4.12	3.15
19:00	Aston VillavFenerbahçe	1	Medium	1.72	4.38	5.25
19:00	Bodo/GlimtvBorussia Dortmund	2	Medium	3.28	4.21	2.19
19:00	RomavReal Madrid	2	High	3.76	4.20	2.02
19:00	Real BetisvFC Porto	1	Medium	2.15	3.91	3.57
19:00	Shakhtar DonetskvAEK Athens FC	1	Low	2.79	3.58	2.76
19:00	Slovan BratislavavVfB Stuttgart	2	Medium	9.90	6.36	1.35

Malta · Premier League 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
17:00	MostavGzira United	1	Low	2.51	3.69	3.02

Germany · 3. Liga 5 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
17:00	Preußen MünstervFortuna Düsseldorf	2	Low	3.03	3.75	2.48
17:00	SV WehenvAlemannia Aachen	2	Low	2.53	3.84	2.90
17:00	FC Viktoria KölnvSG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	1	Low	1.68	4.72	5.21
17:00	VerlvSSV Jahn Regensburg	1	Low	2.27	4.19	3.11
17:00	Waldhof MannheimvFC Ingolstadt 04	1	Low	2.10	4.08	3.58

Algeria · Ligue 1 2 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
17:00	ES SetifvJS Kabylie	1	Low	2.18	3.15	4.46
17:00	TémouchentvMB Rouisset	1	Low	2.35	3.01	4.12

Portugal · Taça de Portugal 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.
18:00	União SantarémvGIL Vicente	1	Low

England · Championship 4 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
18:45	NorwichvSouthampton	2	Low	2.54	4.03	2.80
18:45	QPRvDerby	1	Low	1.82	4.07	4.86
18:45	PortsmouthvSheffield Utd	1	Low	2.40	3.63	3.25
19:00	LincolnvWest Ham	2	Low	4.93	4.26	1.78

Morocco · Botola Pro 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
20:00	Ittihad TangervMaghreb Fès	2	Low	4.29	2.98	2.32

Argentina · Liga Profesional Argentina 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
22:00	Sarmiento JuninvRiver Plate	2	Low	5.78	3.53	1.84

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Odds movement

Fair (de-vigged) home odds, first snapshot to latest.

ARS 1.25 ▼ -0.09

BIR 1.55 ▼ -0.21

RAS 1.67 ▼ -0.46

VIK 19.41 ▲ +1.41

CAR 1.74 ▼ -0.22

5 of today's fixtures with more than one recorded snapshot.

The model

Calibrated within 0.05 in 4/5 leagues and beating a frequency baseline in 5/5, over 5,256 played matches.

See the full backtest — including where it falls short.

Why can you trust us?

xG-based modelteam ratings built from expected goals, not league tables
Market-awareevery probability is blended with de-vigged bookmaker odds
Backtestedvalidated on 5,256 played matches before launch
No invented numbersevery figure on a page comes from the model or the market

How it works

Recent results

predicted vs actual

Morocco · Botola Pro 1 match

Date	Match	Result	Pick	Conf.
18:00	Renaissance BerkanevCR Khemis Zemamra	2–2	1✗	Low	→

South Africa · Premier Soccer League 4 matches

Date	Match	Result	Pick	Conf.
17:30	Orlando PiratesvTS Galaxy	3–0	1✓	Low	→
17:30	Richards BayvMamelodi Sundowns	1–4	2✓	Low	→
17:30	Kaizer ChiefsvStellenbosch	1–1	1✗	Low	→
17:30	Durban CityvAmazulu	1–2	1✗	Low	→

Sweden · Superettan 1 match

Date	Match	Result	Pick	Conf.
17:00	IFK NorrkopingvGIF Sundsvall	4–0	1✓	Low	→

Competitions

Premier League	predictions →
La Liga	predictions →
Bundesliga	predictions →
Serie A	predictions →
Ligue 1	predictions →
UEFA Champions League	predictions →
UEFA Europa League	predictions →
UEFA Europa Conference League	predictions →
All competitions →	predictions →

Prediction types

1X2 Predictions	→
Over/Under Predictions	→
BTTS Predictions	→
Correct Score Predictions	→
Double Chance Predictions	→
Draw Predictions	→
Goals Predictions	→
Accumulator Predictions	→
Handicap Predictions	→