Football Predictions Today

Model-driven 1X2, over/under, BTTS and correct-score probabilities for every fixture we cover — built from expected-goals ratings and de-vigged market odds, never from tips.

10matches today 0high confidence 1positive edges 0strong edges updated 2026-11-12T16:10:04Z UTC · kickoffs in your local time

Our engine has priced 10 of today's 10 fixtures across 7 competitions and disagrees with the bookmakers enough to flag 1 value picks. An edge is a statement about price, not about the result: a pick with a large edge still loses most of the time when its probability is low. The widest gap today: Aurora v Mixco, where we publish Aurora at 49% against the market's 46%. Every number on this page comes from the same two inputs — xG-based team ratings and de-vigged bookmaker odds — so you can check our work on any methodology claim.

First kick-offs: 21:00 Águila v Municipal Limeño 21:30 Atletico Balboa v Inca Aruba 22:00 Deportivo Pasto v Junior

Top model opportunities today

picks with an analysis page first, then largest edge over the market on the 1X2 pick

Guatemala Liga Nacional 22:00

Aurorav

Mixco

1 Pick: Aurora Low

Ours: 49%
Market: 46%
Edge: +3.3%
Best odds: 2.04

Bet Now Compare odds

The strongest pick that already has an analysis page leads, so a larger edge listed here may simply be waiting for its fixture to enter our publication window.

Model vs market — value signals today

edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability

1positive edges ≥ 2%

0strong edges ≥ 5%

+3.3%avg positive edge

1.66avg best price on picks

10fixtures with a model pick

Today at a glance

Highest win probability Deportivo Pasto v Junior Junior · 72% Highest BTTS probability Águila v Municipal Limeño 80% both teams score Most goals expected Águila v Municipal Limeño 85% over 2.5 Top value pick Aurora v Mixco +3.3% edge Biggest market move Deportivo Pasto v Junior home 16.23 ▼ -3.63

All matches today

37 fixtures · 27 already played

Time	League	Match	Pick	Prob	Market	Edge	Conf	Best odds
21:00	Primera Division	ÁguilavMunicipal Limeño Primera Division	1	54.7%	53%	+1.4%	Low	1.75
21:30	Primera Division	Atletico BalboavInca Aruba Primera Division	1	53.5%	54%	-0.5%	Low	1.75
22:00	Primera A	Deportivo PastovJunior Primera A	2	71.7%	80%	-8.7%	Low	1.17
22:00	Guatemala Liga Nacional	AuroravMixco Guatemala Liga Nacional	1	48.9%	46%	+3.3%	Low	2.04
22:00	Brazil Serie B	Ponte PretavOperario-PR Brazil Serie B	2	58.9%	59%	+0.2%	Low	1.65
22:00	Venezuela Primera División	Puerto CabellovMonagas SC Venezuela Primera División	1	55.6%	56%	-0.4%	Low	1.67
22:00	CONCACAF Nations League	ArubavMartinique CONCACAF Nations League	2	62.2%	70%	-7.8%	Low	1.43
23:00	Brazil Serie B	São BernardovAthletic Club Brazil Serie B	1	53.6%	52%	+1.3%	Low	1.94
23:00	Uruguay Primera División	Cerro LargovProgreso Uruguay Primera División	1	45.9%	52%	-5.7%	Low	1.86
23:00	CONCACAF Nations League	Antigua and BarbudavTrinidad and Tobago CONCACAF Nations League	2	60.0%	69%	-9.5%	Low	1.36
2-2 FT	Primera Division	FASvInter Primera Division	1	45.9%	49%	-2.8%	Low	1.95
1-1 FT	Liga de Expansión MX	PiratasvCA La Paz Liga de Expansión MX	1	49.1%	50%	-0.9%	Low	1.94
1-4 FT	Uganda Premier League	Kigezi HomeBoyzvVipers Uganda Premier League	2	61.5%	—	—	Low	—
2-0 FT	Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification	GhanavSomalia Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification	1	82.5%	87%	-4.2%	Low	1.09
3-1 FT	Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification	Congo DRvSierra Leone Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification	1	70.3%	76%	-5.9%	Low	1.23
0-0 FT	Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification	Equatorial GuineavZimbabwe Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification	1	38.0%	37%	+0.9%	Low	2.56
2-1 FT	Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification	GuineavEritrea Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification	1	69.2%	75%	-5.5%	Low	1.26
1-1 FT	Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification	MadagascarvGuinea-Bissau Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification	2	38.6%	40%	-0.9%	Low	2.42
1-2 FT	UEFA Nations League	TürkiyevBelgium UEFA Nations League	2	55.3%	49%	+5.8%	Low	2.00
1-1 FT	UEFA Nations League	ArmeniavCyprus UEFA Nations League	2	42.5%	36%	+6.5%	Low	2.88
0-3 FT	Copa del Rey	Calvo SotelovAlbacete Copa del Rey	2	57.8%	61%	-3.6%	Low	1.53
1-2 FT	Copa del Rey	TarancónvLevante Copa del Rey	2	75.5%	85%	-9.4%	Medium	1.11
2-3 FT	Copa del Rey	NavalcarnerovReal Betis Copa del Rey	2	78.8%	84%	-4.8%	Low	1.12
0-2 FT	Coupe de France	ChambéryvGrenoble Coupe de France	2	69.4%	78%	-8.4%	Low	1.22
4-1 FT	Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification	BeninvCentral African Republic Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification	1	58.3%	58%	+0.4%	Low	1.65
2-0 FT	Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification	CameroonvNamibia Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification	1	69.4%	75%	-5.6%	Low	1.26
2-1 FT	Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification	Ivory CoastvGambia Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification	1	70.7%	76%	-5.7%	Low	1.26
4-1 FT	Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification	SenegalvSudan Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification	1	82.8%	86%	-2.9%	Low	1.13
0-3 FT	CONCACAF Nations League	BarbadosvGuadeloupe CONCACAF Nations League	2	38.1%	43%	-4.8%	Low	2.26
0-6 FT	CONCACAF Nations League	Cayman IslandsvGuyana CONCACAF Nations League	2	91.0%	92%	-1.1%	Low	1.04
2-1 FT	UEFA Nations League	EnglandvCroatia UEFA Nations League	1	76.4%	74%	+2.4%	Low	1.35
3-1 FT	UEFA Nations League	ItalyvFrance UEFA Nations League	2	47.3%	48%	-0.7%	Low	2.05
0-2 FT	UEFA Nations League	CzechiavSpain UEFA Nations League	2	79.5%	78%	+1.4%	Low	1.26
2-0 FT	UEFA Nations League	AlbaniavFinland UEFA Nations League	1	42.3%	43%	-0.7%	Low	2.28
2-1 FT	UEFA Nations League	MontenegrovLatvia UEFA Nations League	1	68.8%	73%	-4.7%	Low	1.31
0-2 FT	UEFA Nations League	San MarinovBelarus UEFA Nations League	2	84.2%	83%	+0.7%	Low	1.16
1-7 FT	CONCACAF Nations League	BonairevCuba CONCACAF Nations League	2	77.4%	87%	-9.8%	Low	1.09

Upcoming fixtures

45 fixtures on 13 November 2026 · odds are median de-vigged decimals

Colombia · Primera A 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
00:00	LlanerosvChico	1	Low	1.81	3.92	5.20

World · CONCACAF Nations League 5 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
00:30	CuraçaovPanama	2	Low	3.33	3.25	2.55
19:00	BermudavSt. Lucia	2	Low	8.74	6.06	1.39
19:00	Puerto RicovDominica	1	Low	1.30	7.04	11.37
20:00	GrenadavSt. Kitts and Nevis	2	Low	3.81	4.25	1.99
23:00	Saint MartinvEl Salvador	2	Low	10.80	6.10	1.34

Mexico · Liga de Expansión MX 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
02:00	MonarcasvLeones Negros UDG	1	Low	1.85	3.97	4.80

Ukraine · Persha Liga 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
10:00	PrykarpattiavKolos Kovalivka II	1	Low	1.80	3.90	5.34

World · Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification 12 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
13:00	ComorosvCongo	1	Low	2.03	3.37	4.75
13:00	MozambiquevEthiopia	1	Low	1.71	3.87	6.33
13:00	ZambiavBurundi	1	Low	1.78	3.88	5.52
16:00	Burkina FasovMauritania	1	Low	1.69	3.83	6.83
16:00	Cape Verde IslandsvLiberia	1	Low	1.38	5.24	11.74
16:00	GabonvLesotho	1	Low	1.33	5.92	13.04
16:00	NigeriavTanzania	1	Low	1.24	7.61	16.30
16:00	South AfricavKenya	1	Low	1.37	5.33	11.98
16:00	TunisiavLibya	1	Low	1.39	5.10	11.93
19:00	EgyptvMalawi	1	Low	1.18	8.37	27.86
19:00	MalivRwanda	1	Low	1.38	5.44	10.87
20:00	MoroccovNiger	1	Low	1.12	12.53	35.87

Montenegro · First League 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.
15:00	JezerovBuducnost Podgorica	1	Low

World · UEFA Nations League 10 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
17:00	MoldovavKazakhstan	2	Low	2.83	3.15	3.04
19:45	SloveniavSwitzerland	2	Low	5.82	3.76	1.78
19:45	ScotlandvFYR Macedonia	1	Low	1.26	6.80	16.25
19:45	SerbiavGermany	2	Low	9.69	6.52	1.35
19:45	SlovakiavFaroe Islands	1	Low	1.45	4.97	9.15
19:45	LuxembourgvEstonia	1	Low	2.30	3.32	3.78
19:45	BulgariavIceland	2	Low	4.60	3.72	1.95
19:45	LiechtensteinvAzerbaijan	2	Low	12.96	5.24	1.37
19:45	AndorravGibraltar	1	Low	1.89	3.30	5.90
19:45	NetherlandsvGreece	1	Low	1.64	4.57	5.85

Nigeria · Premier Football League 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.
17:00	Shooting StarsvBendel Insurance	1	Low

Algeria · Ligue 1 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
17:00	JS SaouravKhenchela	1	Low	2.11	3.24	4.58

France · Coupe de France 3 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
19:00	DijonvOrleans	1	Low	1.60	4.79	6.04
19:00	St-Philbert Gd LieuvLa Roche VF	2	Low	11.52	6.50	1.32
19:00	La NeuvillettevValenciennes	2	Low	—	—	—

Spain · Segunda División 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
19:30	LeganesvBurgos	1	Low	2.43	3.37	3.43

Northern Ireland · Premiership 6 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
19:45	Ballymena UnitedvLinfield	2	Low	4.89	4.18	1.80
19:45	Coleraine FCvPortadown	1	Low	1.29	7.08	11.71
19:45	Carrick RangersvCrusaders FC	1	Low	1.73	4.63	4.85
19:45	GlentoranvBangor	1	Low	1.45	5.39	8.13
19:45	LarnevDungannon Swifts	1	Low	1.63	4.52	6.06
19:45	Limavady UnitedvCliftonville FC	2	Low	4.77	4.36	1.78

Spain · Copa del Rey 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
20:00	Salamanca UDSvCelta Vigo	2	Low	8.58	5.63	1.42

Uruguay · Primera División 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
20:00	Atletico TorquevRacing Montevideo	1	Low	2.00	3.81	4.22

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Odds movement

Fair (de-vigged) home odds, first snapshot to latest.

DEP 16.23 ▼ -3.63

ARU 8.32 ▲ +2.39

CER 1.94 ▼ -0.28

ÁGU 1.87 ▼ -0.24

SÃO 1.91 ▼ -0.19

5 of today's fixtures with more than one recorded snapshot.

The model

Calibrated within 0.05 in 4/5 leagues and beating a frequency baseline in 5/5, over 5,256 played matches.

See the full backtest — including where it falls short.

Why can you trust us?

xG-based modelteam ratings built from expected goals, not league tables
Market-awareevery probability is blended with de-vigged bookmaker odds
Backtestedvalidated on 5,256 played matches before launch
No invented numbersevery figure on a page comes from the model or the market

How it works

Recent results

predicted vs actual

World · CONCACAF Nations League 1 match

Date	Match	Result	Pick	Conf.
20:00	BonairevCuba	1–7	2✓	Low	→

World · UEFA Nations League 5 matches

Date	Match	Result	Pick	Conf.
19:45	San MarinovBelarus	0–2	2✓	Low	→
19:45	MontenegrovLatvia	2–1	1✓	Low	→
19:45	AlbaniavFinland	2–0	1✓	Low	→
19:45	CzechiavSpain	0–2	2✓	Low	→
19:45	ItalyvFrance	3–1	2✗	Low	→

Competitions

Premier League	predictions →
La Liga	predictions →
Bundesliga	predictions →
Serie A	predictions →
Ligue 1	predictions →
UEFA Champions League	predictions →
UEFA Europa League	predictions →
UEFA Europa Conference League	predictions →
All competitions →	predictions →

Prediction types

1X2 Predictions	→
Over/Under Predictions	→
BTTS Predictions	→
Correct Score Predictions	→
Double Chance Predictions	→
Draw Predictions	→
Goals Predictions	→
Accumulator Predictions	→
Handicap Predictions	→