Football Predictions Today

Model-driven 1X2, over/under, BTTS and correct-score probabilities for every fixture we cover — built from expected-goals ratings and de-vigged market odds, never from tips.

21matches today 2high confidence 9positive edges 7strong edges updated 2026-10-12T16:15:37Z UTC · kickoffs in your local time

Our engine has priced 21 of today's 21 fixtures across 15 competitions and disagrees with the bookmakers enough to flag 9 value picks. An edge is a statement about price, not about the result: a pick with a large edge still loses most of the time when its probability is low. The widest gap today: Levante v Sevilla, where the model rates Levante 55% against the market's 35%. Every number on this page comes from the same two inputs — xG-based team ratings and de-vigged bookmaker odds — so you can check our work on any methodology claim.

First kick-offs: 18:30 GKS Katowice v Wieczysta Kraków 18:45 Torino v Udinese 18:45 Dijon v Metz

Top model opportunities today

picks with an analysis page first, then largest model-vs-market edge on the 1X2 pick

La Liga 19:00

Levantev

Sevilla

1 Pick: Levante High

Model: 55%
Market: 35%
Edge: +20.4%
Best odds: 2.82

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Ekstraklasa 18:30

GKS Katowicev

Wieczysta Kraków

1 Pick: GKS Katowice Low

Model: 61%
Market: 46%
Edge: +15.1%
Best odds: 2.13

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Ligue 2 18:45

Dijonv

Metz

1 Pick: Dijon Low

Model: 48%
Market: 34%
Edge: +13.9%
Best odds: 2.88

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Chile Primera División 20:00

Universidad de Chilev

Nublense

1 Pick: Universidad de Chile Low

Model: 73%
Market: 62%
Edge: +11.7%
Best odds: 1.57

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The strongest pick that already has an analysis page leads, so a larger edge listed here may simply be waiting for its fixture to enter our publication window.

Model vs market — value signals today

edge = model probability minus de-vigged market probability

9positive edges ≥ 2%

7strong edges ≥ 5%

+10.9%avg positive edge

2.14avg best price on picks

21fixtures with a model pick

Today at a glance

Highest win probability Novorizontino v Ponte Preta Novorizontino · 90% Highest BTTS probability Shamrock Rovers v Bohemians 74% both teams score Most goals expected Always Ready v Independiente Petrolero 79% over 2.5 Top value pick Levante v Sevilla +20.4% edge Biggest market move Chapecoense-sc v Atletico Paranaense home 4.22 ▲ +0.53

All matches today

60 fixtures · 39 already played

Time	League	Match	Pick	Prob	Market	Edge	Conf	Best odds
18:30	Ekstraklasa	GKS KatowicevWieczysta Kraków Ekstraklasa	1	49.5%	46%	+15.1%	Low	2.13
18:45	Serie A	TorinovUdinese Serie A	1	37.7%	39%	-5.7%	High	2.50
18:45	Ligue 2	DijonvMetz Ligue 2	1	37.5%	34%	+13.9%	Low	2.88
19:00	La Liga	LevantevSevilla La Liga	1	40.0%	35%	+20.4%	High	2.82
19:00	Premier League	CoventryvNewcastle United Premier League	2	39.9%	44%	-17.7%	Medium	2.25
19:00	Premier Division	Shamrock RoversvBohemians Premier Division	1	40.7%	42%	-5.4%	Low	2.28
19:00	Brazil Serie A	CoritibavBotafogo Brazil Serie A	1	38.5%	36%	+11.3%	Low	2.75
19:00	Liga Profesional Argentina	LanusvVelez Sarsfield Liga Profesional Argentina	1	43.0%	44%	-2.9%	Low	2.25
19:00	Bolivia Primera División	Gualberto Villarroel SJvGuabirá Bolivia Primera División	1	48.9%	53%	-16.1%	Low	1.80
19:00	Segunda División	TenerifevGirona Segunda División	2	37.1%	36%	+2.6%	Low	2.68
19:00	Brazil Serie B	Fortaleza ECvCRB Brazil Serie B	1	48.7%	50%	-5.4%	Low	1.93
19:15	Primeira Liga	FamalicaovAlverca Primeira Liga	1	50.9%	51%	+0.7%	Low	1.94
20:00	Chile Primera División	Universidad de ChilevNublense Chile Primera División	1	64.6%	62%	+11.7%	Low	1.57
20:00	Canadian Premier League	HFX Wanderers FCvCavalry FC Canadian Premier League	2	50.5%	52%	-7.2%	Low	1.82
20:00	Primera Nacional	Racing CordobavLos Andes Primera Nacional	1	42.2%	39%	+11.6%	Low	2.44
21:15	Bolivia Primera División	Always ReadyvIndependiente Petrolero Bolivia Primera División	1	84.2%	82%	+7.8%	Low	1.17
21:30	Liga Profesional Argentina	Gimnasia M.vNewells Old Boys Liga Profesional Argentina	1	38.5%	41%	-10.2%	Low	2.35
22:00	Brazil Serie B	NovorizontinovPonte Preta Brazil Serie B	1	89.9%	89%	+3.6%	Low	1.09
22:00	Primera Nacional	All BoysvGodoy Cruz Primera Nacional	2	35.2%	35%	+1.8%	Low	2.88
22:30	Brazil Serie A	Chapecoense-scvAtletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	2	49.4%	50%	-1.5%	Low	1.94
22:30	Brazil Serie B	CriciumavAmerica Mineiro Brazil Serie B	1	66.9%	70%	-12.3%	Low	1.37
0-0 FT	Liga Profesional Argentina	Talleres CordobavIndependiente Liga Profesional Argentina	1	41.1%	42%	-4.9%	Low	2.26
2-1 FT	Guatemala Liga Nacional	Antigua GFCvCobán Imperial Guatemala Liga Nacional	1	56.8%	56%	+3.4%	Low	1.67
3-3 FT	Liga MX	U.N.A.M. - PumasvCruz Azul Liga MX	2	45.1%	47%	-6.8%	Low	2.06
1-2 FT	Primera A	America de CalivIndependiente Medellin Primera A	1	55.1%	52%	+13.7%	Low	1.85
1-3 FT	Ukraine Premier League	Livyi BerehvZorya Luhansk Ukraine Premier League	1	39.2%	33%	+25.1%	Low	2.88
2-4 FT	Persha Liga	Polissya IIvKulykiv Persha Liga	2	57.1%	—	—	Low	—
2-0 FT	Armenia Premier League	SyunikvShirak Armenia Premier League	2	47.0%	47%	-0.5%	Low	1.99
5-0 FT	Segunda División	Real ValladolidvAlbacete Segunda División	1	47.9%	48%	+0.9%	Low	2.02
1-1 FT	Egypt Premier League	El MokawloonvMasr Egypt Premier League	2	34.8%	35%	-2.0%	Low	2.87
3-2 FT	Egypt Premier League	Future FCvEnppi Egypt Premier League	1	43.0%	41%	+7.5%	Low	2.35
2-0 FT	Algeria Ligue 1	KhenchelavCS Constantine Algeria Ligue 1	1	38.9%	36%	+11.7%	Low	2.62
2-3 FT	Algeria Ligue 1	JS El BiarvCR Belouizdad Algeria Ligue 1	2	46.5%	50%	-13.2%	Low	1.86
0-1 FT	Segunda División	BurgosvGranada Segunda División	1	43.5%	39%	+19.8%	Low	2.58
1-3 FT	Super League 1	PAOKvKalamata Super League 1	1	71.2%	78%	-26.4%	Low	1.25
0-1 FT	Liga I	Arges PitestivCFR 1907 Cluj Liga I	1	36.0%	35%	+4.2%	Low	2.74
2-3 FT	Virsliga	FK LiepajavAuda Virsliga	1	40.6%	43%	-7.6%	Low	2.16
5-0 FT	Armenia Premier League	Pyunik YerevanvBKMA Armenia Premier League	1	71.2%	76%	-18.3%	Low	1.23
3-2 FT	FNL	Dukla PrahavBaník Ostrava II FNL	1	47.9%	51%	-10.5%	Low	1.88
1-0 FT	Veikkausliiga	VPSvGnistan Veikkausliiga	2	38.5%	34%	+19.5%	Low	2.90
1-0 FT	Tanzania Premier League	Coastal UnionvSingida Black Stars Tanzania Premier League	2	42.5%	39%	+13.8%	Low	2.28
2-3 FT	Ekstraklasa	Radomiak RadomvMotor Lublin Ekstraklasa	1	37.3%	40%	-10.0%	Low	2.53
1-0 FT	Cyprus 1. Division	AEK LarnacavOmonia Aradippou Cyprus 1. Division	1	63.4%	68%	-17.4%	Low	1.38
1-2 FT	I Liga	Stal RzeszówvLechia Gdansk I Liga	2	39.1%	39%	+0.6%	Low	2.42
3-4 FT	Veikkausliiga	AC OuluvHJK Helsinki Veikkausliiga	2	54.3%	53%	+4.1%	Low	1.78
3-1 FT	Serie A	AtalantavVenezia Serie A	1	54.3%	61%	-26.2%	Medium	1.63
3-1 FT	Segunda División	Real OviedovEibar Segunda División	2	37.5%	31%	+27.7%	Low	3.35
0-4 FT	Süper Lig	EyüpsporvGöztepe Süper Lig	2	50.4%	50%	-0.1%	Low	1.95
3-0 FT	Denmark Superliga	AarhusvSonderjyske Denmark Superliga	1	58.2%	61%	-9.9%	Low	1.57
2-1 FT	Eliteserien	KFUM OslovValerenga Eliteserien	2	37.8%	42%	-15.2%	Low	2.38
4-0 FT	Allsvenskan	IF ElfsborgvHalmstad Allsvenskan	1	68.8%	71%	-8.7%	Low	1.35
1-0 FT	Allsvenskan	Malmo FFvKalmar FF Allsvenskan	1	57.9%	56%	+7.3%	Low	1.71
5-0 FT	Bulgaria First League	LudogoretsvArda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League	1	59.6%	63%	-13.2%	Low	1.48
4-1 FT	Egypt Premier League	Pyramids FCvCeramica Cleopatra Egypt Premier League	1	60.1%	64%	-16.2%	Low	1.57
1-0 FT	Egypt Premier League	Smouha SCvGhazl El Mehalla Egypt Premier League	1	37.5%	40%	-10.7%	Low	2.40
5-0 FT	Canadian Premier League	ForgevYork United Canadian Premier League	1	67.7%	67%	+1.2%	Low	1.40
1-0 FT	Segunda Liga	Benfica BvFelgueiras 1932 Segunda Liga	1	36.5%	40%	-13.3%	Low	2.41
1-4 FT	Ligat Ha'al	Hapoel KatamonvMaccabi Haifa Ligat Ha'al	2	55.1%	58%	-10.6%	Low	1.66
0-0 FT	Serbia Super Liga	Mladost LucanivOFK Beograd Serbia Super Liga	1	39.0%	33%	+23.6%	Low	2.84
3-4 FT	Liga I	Universitatea ClujvRapid Liga I	1	36.1%	35%	+2.7%	Low	2.72

Upcoming fixtures

53 fixtures on 13 October 2026 · odds are median de-vigged decimals

Brazil · Serie A 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
00:00	RB BragantinovCruzeiro	1	Low	2.25	3.77	3.44

Brazil · Serie B 2 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
00:00	Botafogo SPvCeara	1	Low	2.23	3.42	3.86
22:30	Athletic ClubvLondrina	1	Low	2.29	3.42	3.69

Turkey · 1. Lig 3 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
11:30	BandırmasporvSivasspor	1	Low	2.29	3.60	3.51
14:00	SarıyervBodrum FK	1	Low	2.19	3.55	3.83
17:00	PendiksporvVanspor FK	1	Low	1.78	4.08	5.21

Kosovo · Superliga 2 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.
12:00	BallkanivDrita	2	Low
16:00	GjilanivDrenica Skënderaj	1	Low

Kenya · Kenyan Premier League 2 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
12:00	Mombasa ElitevHomeboyz	1	Low	—	—	—
16:00	GOR MahiavMurang'a SEAL	1	Low	1.59	4.13	7.73

Tanzania · Premier League 2 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.
13:00	Tabora UnitedvYoung Africans	2	Low
16:00	SimbavMashujaa	1	Low

Uganda · Premier League 2 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.
13:00	LugazivBUL	2	Low
13:00	NtugasazevKCCA	2	Low

Egypt · Premier League 4 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
14:00	National Bank of EgyptvEl Geish	1	Low	2.10	3.30	4.51
14:00	Abu Qair SemadvAsyut Petrol	1	Low	2.25	3.13	4.25
17:00	PetrojetvWadi Degla	2	Low	3.24	3.14	2.68
17:00	Al IttihadvEl Gouna FC	1	Low	2.34	2.99	4.18

Algeria · Ligue 1 3 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
14:00	US BiskravMC Oran	1	Low	2.38	3.00	4.06
16:45	ASO ChlefvMC Alger	2	Low	4.80	3.21	2.08
19:00	USM AlgervJS Saoura	1	Low	—	—	—

Estonia · Meistriliiga 2 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
15:00	VaprusvKalju Nomme	2	Low	5.08	4.54	1.72
15:00	LaagrivNõmme United	1	Low	2.44	4.24	2.82

World · UEFA Champions League 9 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
16:45	LensvSporting CP	1	Medium	2.63	3.94	2.73
16:45	Sabah FAvSlavia Praha	2	Low	3.61	3.93	2.14
19:00	ArsenalvLille	1	High	1.29	6.74	12.82
19:00	RasenBallsport LeipzigvPSV Eindhoven	1	Medium	1.84	4.66	4.14
19:00	IntervClub Brugge KV	1	Medium	1.31	6.72	11.51
19:00	Atletico MadridvManchester United	1	High	2.02	4.13	3.81
19:00	VillarrealvNapoli	1	High	2.26	3.89	3.33
19:00	GalatasarayvBarcelona	2	Medium	9.19	7.36	1.32
19:00	VikingvBayern Munich	2	Medium	21.95	13.06	1.14

Germany · 3. Liga 5 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
17:00	Hansa RostockvSV Meppen	1	Low	1.77	4.59	4.59
17:00	Rot-Weiß EssenvFortuna Köln	1	Low	1.60	4.81	5.94
17:00	FC SaarbrückenvMSV Duisburg	2	Low	2.73	3.87	2.67
17:00	HavelsevWürzburger Kickers	2	Low	2.98	3.94	2.43
17:00	Stuttgart IIvHoffenheim II	2	Low	3.08	4.15	2.31

Sweden · Superettan 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
17:00	IFK NorrkopingvGIF Sundsvall	1	Low	1.28	7.33	11.95

South Africa · Premier Soccer League 4 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
17:30	Durban CityvAmazulu	2	Low	—	—	—
17:30	Kaizer ChiefsvStellenbosch	1	Low	—	—	—
17:30	Richards BayvMamelodi Sundowns	2	Low	—	—	—
17:30	Orlando PiratesvTS Galaxy	1	Low	1.39	5.04	12.03

England · Championship 8 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
18:45	Wolverhampton WanderersvBolton	1	Low	1.49	5.05	7.65
18:45	CardiffvWatford	1	Low	1.76	4.48	4.78
18:45	BurnleyvCharlton	1	Low	1.72	4.19	5.51
18:45	Bristol CityvBlackburn	1	Low	2.07	3.72	4.01
18:45	MillwallvSwansea	2	Low	2.69	3.68	2.80
18:45	WrexhamvWest Brom	1	Low	2.40	3.56	3.31
19:00	BirminghamvPreston	1	Low	1.70	4.29	5.64
19:00	Stoke CityvMiddlesbrough	2	Low	3.78	3.93	2.08

Scotland · Championship 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
18:45	Queen's ParkvInverness CT	2	Low	4.69	3.96	1.87

Mexico · Liga de Expansión MX 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
23:00	TapatíovTepatitlán	1	Low	1.67	4.59	5.41

Colombia · Primera A 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
23:30	BucaramangavÁguilas Doradas	1	Low	2.16	3.45	4.06

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Odds movement

Fair (de-vigged) home odds, first snapshot to latest.

NOV 1.12 ▼ -0.05

ALW 1.22 ▲ +0.06

CRI 1.43 ▼ -0.10

GUA 1.89 ▼ -0.42

CHA 4.22 ▲ +0.53

5 of today's fixtures with more than one recorded snapshot.

The model

Calibrated within 0.05 in 4/5 leagues and beating a frequency baseline in 5/5, over 5,256 played matches.

See the full backtest — including where it falls short.

Why can you trust us?

xG-based modelteam ratings built from expected goals, not league tables
Market-awareevery probability is blended with de-vigged bookmaker odds
Backtestedvalidated on 5,256 played matches before launch
No invented numbersevery figure on a page comes from the model or the market

How it works

Recent results

predicted vs actual

Romania · Liga I 1 match

Date	Match	Result	Pick	Conf.
18:00	Universitatea ClujvRapid	3–4	1✗	Low	→

Serbia · Super Liga 1 match

Date	Match	Result	Pick	Conf.
18:00	Mladost LucanivOFK Beograd	0–0	1✗	Low	→

Israel · Ligat Ha'al 1 match

Date	Match	Result	Pick	Conf.
17:30	Hapoel KatamonvMaccabi Haifa	1–4	2✓	Low	→

Portugal · Segunda Liga 1 match

Date	Match	Result	Pick	Conf.
17:00	Benfica BvFelgueiras 1932	1–0	1✓	Low	→

Canada · Canadian Premier League 1 match

Date	Match	Result	Pick	Conf.
17:00	ForgevYork United	5–0	1✓	Low	→

Egypt · Premier League 1 match

Date	Match	Result	Pick	Conf.
17:00	Smouha SCvGhazl El Mehalla	1–0	1✓	Low	→

Competitions

Premier League	predictions →
La Liga	predictions →
Bundesliga	predictions →
Serie A	predictions →
Ligue 1	predictions →
UEFA Champions League	predictions →
UEFA Europa League	predictions →
UEFA Europa Conference League	predictions →
All competitions →	predictions →

Prediction types

1X2 Predictions	→
Over/Under Predictions	→
BTTS Predictions	→
Correct Score Predictions	→
Double Chance Predictions	→
Draw Predictions	→
Goals Predictions	→
Accumulator Predictions	→
Handicap Predictions	→