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Today

Football Predictions Today

Model-driven 1X2, over/under, BTTS and correct-score probabilities for every fixture we cover — built from expected-goals ratings and de-vigged market odds, never from tips.

26matches today 2high confidence 5positive edges 4strong edges updated · kickoffs in your local time

Our engine has priced 26 of today's 26 fixtures across 10 competitions and disagrees with the bookmakers enough to flag 5 value picks. An edge is a statement about price, not about the result: a pick with a large edge still loses most of the time when its probability is low. The widest gap today: Manchester City v Paris Saint Germain, where the model rates Manchester City 58% against the market's 47%. Every number on this page comes from the same two inputs — xG-based team ratings and de-vigged bookmaker odds — so you can check our work on any methodology claim.

First kick-offs: Norwich v Southampton QPR v Derby Portsmouth v Sheffield Utd

Top model opportunities today

picks with an analysis page first, then largest model-vs-market edge on the 1X2 pick

The strongest pick that already has an analysis page leads, so a larger edge listed here may simply be waiting for its fixture to enter our publication window.

Model vs market — value signals today

edge = model probability minus de-vigged market probability
5positive edges ≥ 2%
4strong edges ≥ 5%
+10.2%avg positive edge
1.99avg best price on picks
26fixtures with a model pick

Today at a glance

Highest win probability Junior v Deportivo Pereira Junior · 70% Highest BTTS probability Sporting JAX v Birmingham Legion 79% both teams score Most goals expected Sporting JAX v Birmingham Legion 84% over 2.5 Top value pick Manchester City v Paris Saint Germain +10.5% edge Biggest market move Ittihad Tanger v Maghreb Fès home 3.33 ▼ -0.96

All matches today

63 fixtures · 37 already played
TimeLeagueMatchPickProbMarketEdgeConfBest odds
England Championship NorwichvSouthampton England Championship 2 41.4% 36% +22.4% Low 2.73
England Championship QPRvDerby England Championship 1 54.3% 56% -8.3% Low 1.72
England Championship PortsmouthvSheffield Utd England Championship 1 39.0% 41% -7.6% Low 2.40
England Championship LincolnvWest Ham England Championship 2 55.7% 56% +0.6% Low 1.75
UEFA Champions League Manchester CityvParis Saint Germain UEFA Champions League 1 49.8% 47% +10.5% High 2.21
UEFA Champions League Aston VillavFenerbahçe UEFA Champions League 1 48.8% 56% -29.4% Medium 1.75
UEFA Champions League Bodo/GlimtvBorussia Dortmund UEFA Champions League 2 40.6% 43% -11.4% Medium 2.23
UEFA Champions League RomavReal Madrid UEFA Champions League 2 43.1% 50% -26.3% High 1.99
UEFA Champions League Real BetisvFC Porto UEFA Champions League 1 43.1% 47% -13.7% Medium 2.15
UEFA Champions League Shakhtar DonetskvAEK Athens FC UEFA Champions League 2 35.7% 36% -3.1% Low 2.72
UEFA Champions League Slovan BratislavavVfB Stuttgart UEFA Champions League 2 59.2% 71% -47.1% Medium 1.39
Botola Pro Ittihad TangervMaghreb Fès Botola Pro 2 38.3% 37% +6.5% Low 2.61
Primera A JuniorvDeportivo Pereira Primera A 1 69.7% 71% -7.0% Low 1.35
Liga Profesional Argentina Sarmiento JuninvRiver Plate Liga Profesional Argentina 2 52.7% 59% -23.2% Low 1.64
CONMEBOL Sudamericana Atletico-MGvAtletico Torque CONMEBOL Sudamericana 1 63.8% 68% -18.7% Low 1.44
Costa Rica Primera División Perez ZeledonvEscorpiones Belén Costa Rica Primera División 1 46.0% — — Low —
Guatemala Liga Nacional ComunicacionesvAurora Guatemala Liga Nacional 1 61.9% 61% +3.3% Low 1.50
USL Championship Hartford AthleticvCharleston Battery USL Championship 2 37.6% 38% -1.3% Low 2.48
Major League Soccer Toronto FCvOrlando City SC Major League Soccer 1 40.0% 41% -3.7% Low 2.37
Major League Soccer Columbus CrewvCharlotte Major League Soccer 1 43.6% 48% -17.4% Low 2.00
Major League Soccer CF MontrealvAtlanta United FC Major League Soccer 1 39.9% 41% -3.1% Low 2.45
Major League Soccer DC UnitedvNew York Red Bulls Major League Soccer 1 43.8% 47% -12.6% Low 2.10
Major League Soccer FC CincinnativNew England Revolution Major League Soccer 1 52.9% 56% -12.0% Low 1.73
Major League Soccer Inter MiamivNew York City FC Major League Soccer 1 61.3% 62% -4.7% Low 1.57
USL Championship Rhode IslandvLoudoun United USL Championship 1 56.2% 60% -16.0% Low 1.57
3-1 FT Costa Rica Primera División CS CartaginesvPuntarenas FC Costa Rica Primera División 1 61.8% 62% -1.4% Low 1.50
0-1 FT CONMEBOL Sudamericana Boca JuniorsvVasco DA Gama CONMEBOL Sudamericana 1 49.0% 50% -5.8% Low 1.93
1-2 FT Costa Rica Primera División San CarlosvInter San Carlos Costa Rica Primera División 1 44.1% 41% +11.6% Low 2.32
0-1 FT Kazakhstan Premier League IrtyshvFC Astana Kazakhstan Premier League 2 47.6% 49% -3.9% Low 1.91
4-2 FT 1. Lig Batman Petrolsporvİstanbulspor 1. Lig 1 56.0% 56% -1.0% Low 1.67
0-1 FT Super League 2 Olympiakos Piraeus IIvKallithea Super League 2 2 49.7% 48% +6.8% Low 1.96
0-0 FT Kosovo Superliga FeronikelivLlapi Kosovo Superliga 1 44.0% 44% +1.9% Low 2.22
0-1 FT Kenyan Premier League Mombasa ElitevHomeboyz Kenyan Premier League 2 35.2% 38% -9.2% Low 2.50
0-1 FT Meistriliiga Trans NarvavKuressaare Meistriliiga 1 42.8% 46% -13.5% Low 2.00
6-1 FT Norway 1. Division StrommenvAsane Norway 1. Division 1 49.6% 50% -2.3% Low 1.86
0-0 FT Kenyan Premier League AFC LeopardsvBandari Kenyan Premier League 1 46.7% 48% -3.9% Low 1.99
1-6 FT Uganda Premier League PolicevSC Villa Uganda Premier League 2 46.4% 45% +5.3% Low 2.01
0-2 FT Uganda Premier League Kigezi HomeBoyzvNEC Uganda Premier League 2 47.6% — — Low —
1-2 FT Kazakhstan Premier League AtyrauvYelimay Semey Kazakhstan Premier League 2 42.7% 45% -10.6% Low 2.06
1-0 FT Czech Liga Bohemians 1905vMlada Boleslav Czech Liga 1 41.8% 44% -8.5% Low 2.32
2-1 FT Meistriliiga PaidevTammeka Meistriliiga 1 54.5% 55% -3.6% Low 1.66
1-0 FT Kosovo Superliga DukagjinivVushtrria Kosovo Superliga 1 72.8% 80% -26.9% Low 1.17
3-2 FT UEFA Champions League FeyenoordvComo UEFA Champions League 1 39.1% 30% +35.1% Medium 3.27
3-6 FT UEFA Champions League Lask LinzvLiverpool UEFA Champions League 2 55.4% 69% -53.6% Medium 1.43
1-1 FT Malta Premier League MostavGzira United Malta Premier League 1 44.6% 36% +33.0% Low 2.60
1-2 FT 3. Liga Preußen MünstervFortuna Düsseldorf 3. Liga 2 38.3% 41% -9.2% Low 2.38
3-0 FT 3. Liga SV WehenvAlemannia Aachen 3. Liga 2 38.1% 34% +15.6% Low 2.84
2-2 FT 3. Liga FC Viktoria KölnvSG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 3. Liga 1 65.8% 62% +16.3% Low 1.53
2-2 FT 3. Liga VerlvSSV Jahn Regensburg 3. Liga 1 41.8% 42% -2.1% Low 2.25
0-3 FT 3. Liga Waldhof MannheimvFC Ingolstadt 04 3. Liga 1 49.8% 47% +9.3% Low 2.00
0-4 FT 1. Lig AntalyasporvKayserispor 1. Lig 2 41.2% 41% +0.5% Low 2.43
0-0 FT 1. Lig KeçiörengücüvIğdır FK 1. Lig 1 45.5% 44% +7.1% Low 2.19
4-1 FT Norway 1. Division StabaekvSandnes ULF Norway 1. Division 1 63.0% 65% -9.5% Low 1.45
5-1 FT Norway 1. Division StromsgodsetvKongsvinger Norway 1. Division 1 50.6% 52% -7.0% Low 1.83
3-0 FT Norway 1. Division HaugesundvLyn Norway 1. Division 1 75.2% 75% +0.5% Low 1.27
0-1 FT Norway 1. Division SogndalvODD Ballklubb Norway 1. Division 2 50.1% 50% +1.8% Low 1.93
1-1 FT Norway 1. Division BrynevRaufoss Norway 1. Division 1 74.7% 74% +1.7% Low 1.27
1-1 FT Norway 1. Division hoddvRanheim Norway 1. Division 2 46.7% 46% +4.7% Low 2.11
0-0 FT Norway 1. Division MossvEgersund Norway 1. Division 1 44.9% 44% +4.2% Low 2.17
1-1 FT Algeria Ligue 1 ES SetifvJS Kabylie Algeria Ligue 1 1 46.3% 47% -1.2% Low 2.15
0-2 FT Algeria Ligue 1 TémouchentvMB Rouisset Algeria Ligue 1 1 44.3% 46% -7.9% Low 2.10
2-3 FT Taça de Portugal União SantarémvGIL Vicente Taça de Portugal 2 54.7% 66% -45.5% Low 1.44
0-1 FT USL Championship Sporting JAXvBirmingham Legion USL Championship 2 51.2% 49% +8.5% Low 1.92

Upcoming fixtures

First 60 of 71 fixtures on 15 October 2026 · odds are median de-vigged decimals
USA · Major League Soccer 9 matches
Time Match Pick Conf. 1 X 2  
FC DallasvSeattle Sounders 1 Low 1.94 4.24 4.03
Chicago FirevPhiladelphia Union 2 Low 2.71 4.15 2.56
Nashville SCvSporting Kansas City 1 Low 1.29 7.34 11.44
St. Louis CityvVancouver Whitecaps 1 Low 2.29 4.06 3.15
Real Salt LakevSan Jose Earthquakes 1 Low 2.04 4.21 3.68
Colorado RapidsvMinnesota United FC 1 Low 2.18 3.93 3.49
Los Angeles GalaxyvPortland Timbers 1 Low 2.15 4.20 3.36
Los Angeles FCvAustin 1 Low 1.51 5.10 6.98
San DiegovHouston Dynamo 1 Low 2.29 3.84 3.30
World · CONMEBOL Libertadores 1 match
Time Match Pick Conf. 1 X 2  
FluminensevPalmeiras 1 Low 2.94 3.09 2.97
Guatemala · Liga Nacional 3 matches
Time Match Pick Conf. 1 X 2  
GuastatoyavAntigua GFC 1 Low 2.45 2.92 4.01
MarquensevMixco 1 Low 1.88 3.83 4.85
XelajúvMalacateco 1 Low 1.64 4.24 6.50
Costa Rica · Primera División 1 match
Time Match Pick Conf. 1 X 2  
LD AlajuelensevCS Herediano 1 Low 2.09 3.61 4.10
Kosovo · Superliga 1 match
Time Match Pick Conf. 1 X 2  
MalishevavPrishtina 1 Low 2.00 3.78 4.23
Uganda · Premier League 3 matches
Time Match Pick Conf.  
KatakavVipers 2 Low
ExpressvUPDF 1 Low
URAvEntebbe UPPC 2 Low
Zambia · Super League 3 matches
Time Match Pick Conf. 1 X 2  
Mutondo StarsvGreen Buffaloes 1 Low — — —
Chirundu UtdvKabwe Warriors X Low — — —
Makeni All StarsvZanaco 2 Low 3.35 3.12 2.62
Saudi Arabia · Pro League 4 matches
Time Match Pick Conf. 1 X 2  
Al-Faisaly FCvAl Kholood 1 Low — — —
Al Khaleej SaihatvAl-Fayha 1 Low 2.23 3.68 3.58
Al-HazmvAl-Fateh 1 Low 2.69 3.89 2.69
Al-Ahli JeddahvAl-Nassr 2 Low 3.29 3.98 2.25
Latvia · Virsliga 1 match
Time Match Pick Conf. 1 X 2  
Rīgas FSvSuper Nova 1 Low 1.31 6.58 11.83
Turkey · 1. Lig 3 matches
Time Match Pick Conf. 1 X 2  
Mardin 1969vFatih Karagümrük 1 Low 2.16 3.65 3.81
Manisa F.K.vEsenler Erokspor 2 Low 3.53 3.80 2.20
MuğlasporvBursaspor 2 Low 5.38 4.08 1.76
Estonia · Meistriliiga 1 match
Time Match Pick Conf. 1 X 2  
Flora TallinnvFC Levadia Tallinn 2 Low 5.72 4.89 1.61
Poland · I Liga 1 match
Time Match Pick Conf. 1 X 2  
Pogoń SiedlcevPuszcza Niepołomice 1 Low 2.83 3.59 2.72
World · UEFA Europa League 18 matches
Time Match Pick Conf. 1 X 2  
LyonvCrystal Palace 1 High 2.31 3.85 3.25
AZ AlkmaarvHapoel Beer Sheva 1 Low 1.37 5.95 9.62
Lech PoznanvBayer Leverkusen 2 Medium 4.84 4.59 1.74
Red Bull SalzburgvAC Milan 2 Medium 4.18 4.09 1.94
Sparta PrahavLillestrom 1 Low 1.42 5.64 8.50
Union St. GilloisevReal Sociedad 1 Medium 2.54 3.80 2.91
CeljevOmonia Nicosia 2 Low 2.63 3.60 2.93
TorreensevSunderland 2 Medium 7.84 5.46 1.45
BournemouthvSturm Graz 1 Medium 1.26 7.45 13.83
MarseillevOlympiakos Piraeus 1 Medium 2.39 3.75 3.18
RennesvOFI 1 Medium 1.32 6.35 11.63
HoffenheimvBeşiktaş 1 Medium 2.05 4.22 3.64
BenficavCeltic 1 Low 1.32 6.40 11.50
JagielloniavArarat-Armenia 1 Low 1.49 5.07 7.47
NEC NijmegenvLevski Sofia 1 Low 1.91 4.00 4.45
Celta VigovJuventus 2 High 3.71 3.50 2.25
Dinamo ZagrebvAnderlecht 1 Low 2.13 3.73 3.81
Ferencvarosi TCvPlzen 1 Low 2.06 4.00 3.78
World · UEFA Europa Conference League 10 matches
Time Match Pick Conf. 1 X 2  
FC LuganovFK Crvena Zvezda 1 Low 2.93 3.75 2.55
HNK Hajduk SplitvAjax 2 Low 5.92 4.84 1.60
PanathinaikosvBorac Banja Luka 1 Low 1.28 6.87 13.60
GentvAarhus 1 Low 1.69 4.39 5.50
Universitatea CraiovavGetafe 1 Medium 3.35 3.42 2.45
CSKA SofiavMonaco 2 Medium 6.46 4.84 1.57
KuPSvTrabzonspor 2 Low 6.97 4.77 1.55
Mjallby AIFvInter Club d'Escaldes 1 Low 1.40 5.48 9.53
Egnatia RrogozhinëvFC Midtjylland 2 Low 6.70 4.52 1.59
RigavKairat Almaty 1 Low 2.04 3.64 4.25
England · League One 1 match
Time Match Pick Conf. 1 X 2  
Mansfield TownvOxford United 1 Low 2.40 3.78 3.13

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Odds movement

Fair (de-vigged) home odds, first snapshot to latest.

JUN 1.40 ▲ +0.07
ATL 1.46 ▼ -0.07
FC 1.79 ▼ -0.37
ITT 3.33 ▼ -0.96
DC 2.13 ▲ +0.25

5 of today's fixtures with more than one recorded snapshot.

The model

4/5

Calibrated within 0.05 in 4/5 leagues and beating a frequency baseline in 5/5, over 5,256 played matches.

See the full backtest — including where it falls short.

Why can you trust us?

  • xG-based modelteam ratings built from expected goals, not league tables
  • Market-awareevery probability is blended with de-vigged bookmaker odds
  • Backtestedvalidated on 5,256 played matches before launch
  • No invented numbersevery figure on a page comes from the model or the market

How it works

Recent results

predicted vs actual
Portugal · Taça de Portugal 1 match
Date Match Result Pick Conf.  
União SantarémvGIL Vicente 2–3 2✓ Low →
Algeria · Ligue 1 2 matches
Date Match Result Pick Conf.  
TémouchentvMB Rouisset 0–2 1✗ Low →
ES SetifvJS Kabylie 1–1 1✗ Low →
Norway · 1. Division 3 matches
Date Match Result Pick Conf.  
MossvEgersund 0–0 1✗ Low →
hoddvRanheim 1–1 2✗ Low →
BrynevRaufoss 1–1 1✗ Low →

Competitions

Premier Leaguepredictions →
La Ligapredictions →
Bundesligapredictions →
Serie Apredictions →
Ligue 1predictions →
UEFA Champions Leaguepredictions →
UEFA Europa Leaguepredictions →
UEFA Europa Conference Leaguepredictions →
All competitions →predictions →

Prediction types

1X2 Predictions→
Over/Under Predictions→
BTTS Predictions→
Correct Score Predictions→
Double Chance Predictions→
Draw Predictions→
Goals Predictions→
Accumulator Predictions→
Handicap Predictions→
Best odds on today’s football Bet Now