Football Predictions Today

Model-driven 1X2, over/under, BTTS and correct-score probabilities for every fixture we cover — built from expected-goals ratings and de-vigged market odds, never from tips.

16matches today 2high confidence 6positive edges 5strong edges updated 2026-10-21T16:16:49Z UTC · kickoffs in your local time

Our engine has priced 16 of today's 16 fixtures across 8 competitions and disagrees with the bookmakers enough to flag 6 value picks. An edge is a statement about price, not about the result: a pick with a large edge still loses most of the time when its probability is low. The widest gap today: Club Brugge KV v Lens, where the model rates Club Brugge KV 71% against the market's 50%. Every number on this page comes from the same two inputs — xG-based team ratings and de-vigged bookmaker odds — so you can check our work on any methodology claim.

First kick-offs: 18:30 Zabbar St. Patrick v Sliema Wanderers 18:30 Mosta v Valletta FC 19:00 Reading v Leyton Orient

Top model opportunities today

picks with an analysis page first, then largest model-vs-market edge on the 1X2 pick

UEFA Champions League 19:00

Club Brugge KVv

Lens

1 Pick: Club Brugge KV Medium

Model: 71%
Market: 50%
Edge: +20.4%
Best odds: 1.95

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UEFA Champions League 19:00

Bayern Munichv

Arsenal

1 Pick: Bayern Munich High

Model: 62%
Market: 43%
Edge: +19.3%
Best odds: 2.30

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Guatemala Liga Nacional 21:00

Mixcov

Municipal

1 Pick: Mixco Low

Model: 48%
Market: 33%
Edge: +15.2%
Best odds: 2.86

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USL Championship 22:30

Brooklynv

Birmingham Legion

2 Pick: Birmingham Legion Low

Model: 48%
Market: 38%
Edge: +9.5%
Best odds: 2.48

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The strongest pick that already has an analysis page leads, so a larger edge listed here may simply be waiting for its fixture to enter our publication window.

Model vs market — value signals today

edge = model probability minus de-vigged market probability

6positive edges ≥ 2%

5strong edges ≥ 5%

+12.6%avg positive edge

1.85avg best price on picks

16fixtures with a model pick

Today at a glance

Highest win probability Real Madrid v RasenBallsport Leipzig Real Madrid · 75% Highest BTTS probability Real Betis v Feyenoord 83% both teams score Most goals expected Real Betis v Feyenoord 85% over 2.5 Top value pick Club Brugge KV v Lens +20.4% edge Biggest market move Zabbar St. Patrick v Sliema Wanderers home 4.40 ▼ -0.58

All matches today

49 fixtures · 33 already played

Time	League	Match	Pick	Prob	Market	Edge	Conf	Best odds
18:30	Malta Premier League	Zabbar St. PatrickvSliema Wanderers Malta Premier League	2	45.4%	50%	-17.2%	Low	1.85
18:30	Malta Premier League	MostavValletta FC Malta Premier League	2	54.9%	60%	-19.0%	Low	1.57
19:00	League One	ReadingvLeyton Orient League One	1	61.7%	65%	-11.9%	Low	1.53
19:00	UEFA Champions League	Aston VillavViking UEFA Champions League	1	69.4%	77%	-29.2%	Medium	1.28
19:00	UEFA Champions League	Bayern MunichvArsenal UEFA Champions League	1	47.6%	43%	+19.3%	High	2.30
19:00	UEFA Champions League	Sporting CPvLask Linz UEFA Champions League	1	73.5%	75%	-7.6%	Low	1.33
19:00	UEFA Champions League	IntervShakhtar Donetsk UEFA Champions League	1	67.6%	78%	-41.4%	Medium	1.27
19:00	UEFA Champions League	Real MadridvRasenBallsport Leipzig UEFA Champions League	1	75.5%	77%	-8.0%	High	1.27
19:00	UEFA Champions League	Real BetisvFeyenoord UEFA Champions League	1	51.8%	58%	-24.7%	Medium	1.70
19:00	UEFA Champions League	Club Brugge KVvLens UEFA Champions League	1	55.5%	50%	+20.4%	Medium	1.95
21:00	Guatemala Liga Nacional	MixcovMunicipal Guatemala Liga Nacional	1	36.8%	33%	+15.2%	Low	2.86
22:00	CONMEBOL Sudamericana	Atletico TorquevAtletico-MG CONMEBOL Sudamericana	2	40.6%	41%	-2.3%	Low	2.38
22:30	USL Championship	BrooklynvBirmingham Legion USL Championship	2	40.4%	38%	+9.5%	Low	2.48
23:00	Major League Soccer	FC CincinnativDC United Major League Soccer	1	55.5%	57%	-5.3%	Low	1.75
23:15	Primera A	LlanerosvDeportivo Cali Primera A	2	37.6%	35%	+8.8%	Low	2.69
23:30	USL Championship	Sporting JAXvLouisville City USL Championship	2	67.7%	67%	+2.5%	Low	1.40
1-0 FT	Liga MX	Guadalajara ChivasvNecaxa Liga MX	1	68.6%	68%	+3.2%	Low	1.42
1-3 FT	CONMEBOL Sudamericana	Vasco DA GamavBoca Juniors CONMEBOL Sudamericana	1	38.7%	36%	+10.0%	Low	2.85
0-1 FT	Liga MX	FC JuarezvAtlante FC Liga MX	2	40.2%	40%	-1.1%	Low	2.37
2-1 FT	Liga MX	Atletico San LuisvClub Queretaro Liga MX	1	41.8%	42%	+0.4%	Low	2.30
1-1 FT	Primera A	MillonariosvOnce Caldas Primera A	1	56.1%	56%	+2.1%	Low	1.78
0-2 FT	Liga MX	Tigres UANLvLeon Liga MX	1	47.4%	50%	-8.6%	Low	1.92
1-2 FT	J1 League	Avispa FukuokavGamba Osaka J1 League	2	37.4%	35%	+10.3%	Low	2.79
0-0 FT	J1 League	FC TokyovKashiwa Reysol J1 League	1	50.8%	45%	+24.0%	Low	2.14
2-1 FT	J1 League	Kawasaki FrontalevVissel Kobe J1 League	1	37.3%	39%	-5.7%	Low	2.50
2-2 FT	J1 League	Kyoto SangavKashima J1 League	2	50.7%	48%	+10.0%	Low	2.02
1-1 FT	J1 League	Nagoya GrampusvCerezo Osaka J1 League	1	39.2%	41%	-6.9%	Low	2.39
2-0 FT	J1 League	Fagiano OkayamavMito Hollyhock J1 League	1	51.7%	53%	-6.4%	Low	1.81
0-5 FT	J1 League	Shimizu S-pulsevMachida Zelvia J1 League	2	47.8%	46%	+8.2%	Low	2.15
4-0 FT	J1 League	V-varen NagasakivSanfrecce Hiroshima J1 League	2	68.5%	65%	+12.9%	Low	1.46
2-2 FT	J1 League	Yokohama F. MarinosvTokyo Verdy J1 League	1	55.8%	51%	+20.6%	Low	1.93
3-2 FT	J1 League	UrawavJEF United Chiba J1 League	1	56.6%	58%	-4.3%	Low	1.67
1-6 FT	CAF Champions League	15 de AgostovSimba CAF Champions League	2	72.6%	81%	-33.7%	Low	1.14
2-1 FT	Uganda Premier League	BULvNEC Uganda Premier League	1	39.6%	41%	-4.5%	Low	2.27
0-0 FT	Uganda Premier League	LugazivExpress Uganda Premier League	X	34.3%	33%	+6.7%	Low	2.90
2-1 FT	Egypt Premier League	Ghazl El MehallavAl Ittihad Egypt Premier League	2	39.3%	33%	+23.9%	Low	3.06
3-1 FT	Meistriliiga	LaagrivFlora Tallinn Meistriliiga	2	41.0%	49%	-31.5%	Low	1.87
1-1 FT	Veikkausliiga	PK-35vFF Jaro Veikkausliiga	1	35.9%	31%	+19.3%	Low	3.06
1-0 FT	Guatemala Liga Nacional	MalacatecovComunicaciones Guatemala Liga Nacional	1	42.0%	38%	+16.6%	Low	2.15
1-1 FT	Malta Premier League	Hamrun SpartansvBalzan FC Malta Premier League	1	51.3%	52%	-4.5%	Low	1.80
2-0 FT	Malta Premier League	BirzebbugavMarsaxlokk Malta Premier League	2	62.3%	62%	+2.2%	Low	1.57
4-1 FT	CAF Champions League	Young AfricansvCFFA CAF Champions League	1	87.1%	86%	+3.0%	Low	1.00
2-4 FT	UEFA Champions League	LillevGalatasaray UEFA Champions League	1	44.6%	43%	+5.9%	Medium	2.26
4-1 FT	UEFA Champions League	ComovManchester United UEFA Champions League	1	44.9%	40%	+18.2%	High	2.46
3-3 FT	Egypt Premier League	Al AhlyvOlympic El Qanah Egypt Premier League	1	70.7%	75%	-16.7%	Low	1.26
2-0 FT	Egypt Premier League	Ceramica CleopatravPetrojet Egypt Premier League	1	47.7%	50%	-8.9%	Low	1.93
2-1 FT	Norway 1. Division	SogndalvRaufoss Norway 1. Division	1	64.4%	64%	+2.8%	Low	1.49
0-2 FT	DBU Pokalen	VanløsevNykobing FC DBU Pokalen	2	61.1%	62%	-1.9%	Low	1.55
3-1 FT	La Liga	LevantevAthletic Club La Liga	2	42.4%	45%	-10.7%	High	2.33

Upcoming fixtures

59 fixtures on 22 October 2026 · odds are median de-vigged decimals

USA · US Open Cup 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
00:00	Columbus CrewvSt. Louis City	1	Low	2.51	3.88	2.91

World · CONMEBOL Libertadores 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
00:30	PalmeirasvFluminense	1	Low	1.85	3.66	5.33

Mexico · Liga MX 5 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
01:00	TolucavClub Tijuana	1	Low	1.42	5.78	8.17
01:00	AtlasvClub America	2	Low	3.57	3.86	2.17
01:00	PueblavMonterrey	2	Low	4.31	3.96	1.94
03:10	Santos LagunavU.N.A.M. - Pumas	1	Low	2.38	3.77	3.17
03:10	CF PachucavCruz Azul	2	Low	3.13	3.73	2.43

Colombia · Primera A 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
01:20	Santa FevJaguares	1	Low	1.40	5.40	10.03

El Salvador · Primera Division 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
01:30	FASvIsidro Metapán	1	Low	2.37	3.46	3.46

Montenegro · First League 2 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
13:00	MornarvMladost DG	1	Low	1.57	4.52	7.12
16:00	Buducnost PodgoricavArsenal Tivat	1	Low	1.67	4.15	6.23

Romania · Liga II 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
13:00	Bihor OradeavCSM Reşiţa	1	Low	2.43	3.82	3.05

Uganda · Premier League 3 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.
13:00	SC VillavMbarara City	1	Low
13:00	Kigezi HomeBoyzvEntebbe UPPC	2	Low
16:00	KCCAvUPDF	1	Low

Saudi Arabia · Pro League 3 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
13:40	Al-HazmvAl-Fayha	1	Low	2.41	3.57	3.28
14:45	Al-FatehvAl Shabab	2	Low	3.26	4.02	2.25
18:00	Al-Ahli JeddahvAl Khaleej Saihat	1	Low	1.40	5.83	8.72

Qatar · Stars League 2 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
14:30	Al ShahaniyavAl Sadd	2	Low	7.65	5.80	1.44
16:45	Al-GharafavAl Ahli Doha	1	Low	2.32	4.11	3.07

World · UEFA Europa Conference League 18 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
14:30	Kairat AlmatyvPanathinaikos	2	Low	5.34	4.22	1.74
16:45	FC NordsjaellandvCSKA Sofia	1	Low	1.47	5.24	7.64
16:45	GetafevFC Lugano	1	Medium	1.89	3.74	4.89
16:45	FK Crvena ZvezdavFC Copenhagen	1	Low	2.37	3.80	3.17
16:45	TrabzonsporvHeart Of Midlothian	1	Low	1.40	5.88	8.81
16:45	FK JablonecvBrighton	2	Medium	10.41	5.87	1.36
16:45	Inter Club d'EscaldesvUniversitatea Craiova	2	Low	5.77	4.17	1.70
16:45	PafosvRiga	1	Low	1.72	4.27	5.42
16:45	FC Iberia 1999vMjallby AIF	2	Low	3.38	3.57	2.36
16:45	Kauno ŽalgirisvBrann	2	Low	4.58	4.06	1.87
19:00	MonacovFreiburg	1	High	2.36	3.78	3.20
19:00	AjaxvAtalanta	1	Medium	2.24	3.93	3.35
19:00	SC BragavGent	1	Low	1.80	3.88	5.34
19:00	FC MidtjyllandvSt. Truiden	1	Low	1.74	4.32	5.12
19:00	AarhusvEgnatia Rrogozhinë	1	Low	1.64	4.45	6.10
19:00	Lincoln Red Imps FCvTwente	2	Low	12.71	6.77	1.29
19:00	FC ThunvHNK Hajduk Split	2	Low	2.93	3.79	2.54
19:00	Borac Banja LukavKuPS	1	Low	1.99	3.78	4.30

Armenia · Premier League 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
15:00	SardarapatvFC Urartu	2	Low	4.28	3.87	1.97

Malta · Premier League 2 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
16:00	BirkirkaravFloriana	2	Low	3.42	3.64	2.31
18:30	HiberniansvGzira United	1	Low	2.06	3.80	3.98

World · UEFA Europa League 18 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
16:45	Lech PoznanvSunderland	2	Medium	4.99	4.23	1.78
16:45	JuventusvRennes	1	High	1.65	4.43	5.89
16:45	Dinamo ZagrebvNEC Nijmegen	1	Low	1.73	4.45	5.04
16:45	Sturm GrazvMarseille	2	Medium	3.63	3.85	2.15
16:45	Ferencvarosi TCvTorreense	1	Low	1.41	5.35	9.49
16:45	OFIvBayer Leverkusen	2	Medium	11.79	7.09	1.29
16:45	Union St. GilloisevHapoel Beer Sheva	1	Low	1.40	5.79	8.94
16:45	Ararat-ArmeniavAZ Alkmaar	2	Low	6.03	4.72	1.61
19:00	BournemouthvAC Milan	1	High	2.20	3.84	3.51
19:00	HoffenheimvLyon	1	High	2.12	4.11	3.51
19:00	CelticvCelta Vigo	1	Medium	2.84	3.68	2.66
19:00	LillestromvReal Sociedad	2	Medium	5.94	4.75	1.61
19:00	JagielloniavAnderlecht	2	Low	3.23	3.74	2.36
19:00	BeşiktaşvCrystal Palace	1	Medium	2.21	3.98	3.37
19:00	Olympiakos PiraeusvSparta Praha	1	Low	1.59	4.61	6.52
19:00	PlzenvLevski Sofia	1	Low	1.87	4.06	4.54
19:00	Omonia NicosiavBenfica	2	Low	8.04	5.27	1.46
19:00	CeljevRed Bull Salzburg	2	Low	5.37	4.33	1.72

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Odds movement

Fair (de-vigged) home odds, first snapshot to latest.

AST 1.30 —

FC 1.76 ▲ +0.17

REA 1.29 ▼ -0.06

REA 1.55 ▼ -0.10

REA 1.72 ▲ +0.09

5 of today's fixtures with more than one recorded snapshot.

The model

Calibrated within 0.05 in 4/5 leagues and beating a frequency baseline in 5/5, over 5,256 played matches.

See the full backtest — including where it falls short.

Why can you trust us?

xG-based modelteam ratings built from expected goals, not league tables
Market-awareevery probability is blended with de-vigged bookmaker odds
Backtestedvalidated on 5,256 played matches before launch
No invented numbersevery figure on a page comes from the model or the market

How it works

Recent results

predicted vs actual

Spain · La Liga 1 match

Date	Match	Result	Pick	Conf.
18:00	LevantevAthletic Club	3–1	2✗	High	→

Denmark · DBU Pokalen 1 match

Date	Match	Result	Pick	Conf.
17:00	VanløsevNykobing FC	0–2	2✓	Low	→

Norway · 1. Division 1 match

Date	Match	Result	Pick	Conf.
17:00	SogndalvRaufoss	2–1	1✓	Low	→

Egypt · Premier League 2 matches

Date	Match	Result	Pick	Conf.
17:00	Ceramica CleopatravPetrojet	2–0	1✓	Low	→
17:00	Al AhlyvOlympic El Qanah	3–3	1✗	Low	→

World · UEFA Champions League 1 match

Date	Match	Result	Pick	Conf.
16:45	ComovManchester United	4–1	1✓	High	→

Competitions

Premier League	predictions →
La Liga	predictions →
Bundesliga	predictions →
Serie A	predictions →
Ligue 1	predictions →
UEFA Champions League	predictions →
UEFA Europa League	predictions →
UEFA Europa Conference League	predictions →
All competitions →	predictions →

Prediction types

1X2 Predictions	→
Over/Under Predictions	→
BTTS Predictions	→
Correct Score Predictions	→
Double Chance Predictions	→
Draw Predictions	→
Goals Predictions	→
Accumulator Predictions	→
Handicap Predictions	→