Football Predictions Today

Model-driven 1X2, over/under, BTTS and correct-score probabilities for every fixture we cover — built from expected-goals ratings and de-vigged market odds, never from tips.

53matches today 3high confidence 17positive edges 14strong edges updated 2026-10-12T16:15:37Z UTC · kickoffs in your local time

Our engine has priced 53 of today's 53 fixtures across 18 competitions and disagrees with the bookmakers enough to flag 17 value picks. An edge is a statement about price, not about the result: a pick with a large edge still loses most of the time when its probability is low. The widest gap today: Lens v Sporting CP, where the model rates Lens 45% against the market's 38%. Every number on this page comes from the same two inputs — xG-based team ratings and de-vigged bookmaker odds — so you can check our work on any methodology claim.

First kick-offs: 00:00 RB Bragantino v Cruzeiro 00:00 Botafogo SP v Ceara 11:30 Bandırmaspor v Sivasspor

Top model opportunities today

picks with an analysis page first, then largest model-vs-market edge on the 1X2 pick

UEFA Champions League 16:45

Lensv

Sporting CP

1 Pick: Lens Medium

Model: 45%
Market: 38%
Edge: +7.0%
Best odds: 2.62

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UEFA Champions League 19:00

Atletico Madridv

Manchester United

1 Pick: Atletico Madrid High

Model: 57%
Market: 50%
Edge: +7.0%
Best odds: 2.00

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UEFA Champions League 19:00

Villarrealv

Napoli

1 Pick: Villarreal High

Model: 50%
Market: 44%
Edge: +5.3%
Best odds: 2.29

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Meistriliiga 15:00

Laagriv

Nõmme United

1 Pick: Laagri Low

Model: 67%
Market: 41%
Edge: +25.7%
Best odds: 2.25

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The strongest pick that already has an analysis page leads, so a larger edge listed here may simply be waiting for its fixture to enter our publication window.

Model vs market — value signals today

edge = model probability minus de-vigged market probability

17positive edges ≥ 2%

14strong edges ≥ 5%

+10.0%avg positive edge

1.91avg best price on picks

53fixtures with a model pick

Today at a glance

Highest win probability IFK Norrkoping v GIF Sundsvall IFK Norrkoping · 80% Highest BTTS probability RasenBallsport Leipzig v PSV Eindhoven 83% both teams score Most goals expected RasenBallsport Leipzig v PSV Eindhoven 85% over 2.5 Top value pick Lens v Sporting CP +7.0% edge Biggest market move Viking v Bayern Munich home 21.95 ▲ +3.95

All matches today

53 fixtures

Time	League	Match	Pick	Prob	Market	Edge	Conf	Best odds
00:00	Brazil Serie A	RB BragantinovCruzeiro Brazil Serie A	1	40.6%	44%	-15.2%	Low	2.18
00:00	Brazil Serie B	Botafogo SPvCeara Brazil Serie B	1	42.5%	45%	-9.7%	Low	2.11
11:30	1. Lig	BandırmasporvSivasspor 1. Lig	1	47.7%	44%	+16.0%	Low	2.17
12:00	Kosovo Superliga	BallkanivDrita Kosovo Superliga	2	34.0%	—	—	Low	—
12:00	Kenyan Premier League	Mombasa ElitevHomeboyz Kenyan Premier League	1	41.7%	—	—	Low	—
13:00	Tanzania Premier League	Tabora UnitedvYoung Africans Tanzania Premier League	2	52.7%	—	—	Low	—
13:00	Uganda Premier League	LugazivBUL Uganda Premier League	2	48.4%	—	—	Low	—
13:00	Uganda Premier League	NtugasazevKCCA Uganda Premier League	2	49.0%	—	—	Low	—
14:00	Egypt Premier League	National Bank of EgyptvEl Geish Egypt Premier League	1	45.1%	48%	-9.7%	Low	2.00
14:00	Egypt Premier League	Abu Qair SemadvAsyut Petrol Egypt Premier League	1	39.6%	45%	-19.6%	Low	2.13
14:00	1. Lig	SarıyervBodrum FK 1. Lig	1	45.4%	46%	-1.5%	Low	2.08
14:00	Algeria Ligue 1	US BiskravMC Oran Algeria Ligue 1	1	37.6%	42%	-17.4%	Low	2.25
15:00	Meistriliiga	VaprusvKalju Nomme Meistriliiga	2	55.3%	58%	-12.1%	Low	1.60
15:00	Meistriliiga	LaagrivNõmme United Meistriliiga	1	47.4%	41%	+25.7%	Low	2.25
16:00	Kosovo Superliga	GjilanivDrenica Skënderaj Kosovo Superliga	1	44.1%	—	—	Low	—
16:00	Kenyan Premier League	GOR MahiavMurang'a SEAL Kenyan Premier League	1	54.8%	63%	-32.1%	Low	1.50
16:00	Tanzania Premier League	SimbavMashujaa Tanzania Premier League	1	77.4%	—	—	Low	—
16:45	UEFA Champions League	LensvSporting CP UEFA Champions League	1	39.7%	38%	+7.0%	Medium	2.62
16:45	UEFA Champions League	Sabah FAvSlavia Praha UEFA Champions League	2	41.9%	47%	-19.6%	Low	2.08
16:45	Algeria Ligue 1	ASO ChlefvMC Alger Algeria Ligue 1	2	50.9%	48%	+11.4%	Low	1.97
17:00	Egypt Premier League	PetrojetvWadi Degla Egypt Premier League	2	37.1%	37%	-1.1%	Low	2.64
17:00	Egypt Premier League	Al IttihadvEl Gouna FC Egypt Premier League	1	44.0%	43%	+5.2%	Low	2.20
17:00	3. Liga	Hansa RostockvSV Meppen 3. Liga	1	57.1%	56%	+2.5%	Low	1.69
17:00	3. Liga	Rot-Weiß EssenvFortuna Köln 3. Liga	1	58.1%	62%	-17.0%	Low	1.52
17:00	3. Liga	FC SaarbrückenvMSV Duisburg 3. Liga	2	38.4%	37%	+3.7%	Low	2.50
17:00	3. Liga	HavelsevWürzburger Kickers 3. Liga	2	40.3%	41%	-3.5%	Low	2.30
17:00	3. Liga	Stuttgart IIvHoffenheim II 3. Liga	2	42.1%	43%	-4.9%	Low	2.22
17:00	1. Lig	PendiksporvVanspor FK 1. Lig	1	55.3%	56%	-4.0%	Low	1.67
17:00	Superettan	IFK NorrkopingvGIF Sundsvall Superettan	1	79.5%	78%	+6.1%	Low	1.22
17:30	Premier Soccer League	Durban CityvAmazulu Premier Soccer League	2	35.0%	—	—	Low	—
17:30	Premier Soccer League	Kaizer ChiefsvStellenbosch Premier Soccer League	1	44.7%	—	—	Low	—
17:30	Premier Soccer League	Richards BayvMamelodi Sundowns Premier Soccer League	2	71.7%	—	—	Low	—
17:30	Premier Soccer League	Orlando PiratesvTS Galaxy Premier Soccer League	1	73.8%	72%	+7.8%	Low	1.26
18:45	England Championship	Wolverhampton WanderersvBolton England Championship	1	63.6%	67%	-14.1%	Low	1.44
18:45	England Championship	CardiffvWatford England Championship	1	60.0%	57%	+12.8%	Low	1.70
18:45	England Championship	BurnleyvCharlton England Championship	1	56.0%	58%	-8.1%	Low	1.65
18:45	England Championship	Bristol CityvBlackburn England Championship	1	45.6%	48%	-10.4%	Low	2.02
18:45	England Championship	MillwallvSwansea England Championship	2	37.8%	36%	+8.7%	Low	2.72
18:45	England Championship	WrexhamvWest Brom England Championship	1	38.6%	42%	-12.3%	Low	2.34
18:45	Scotland Championship	Queen's ParkvInverness CT Scotland Championship	2	54.0%	53%	+2.4%	Low	1.76
19:00	England Championship	BirminghamvPreston England Championship	1	59.3%	59%	+1.4%	Low	1.63
19:00	England Championship	Stoke CityvMiddlesbrough England Championship	2	44.1%	48%	-15.9%	Low	1.98
19:00	UEFA Champions League	ArsenalvLille UEFA Champions League	1	73.6%	77%	-15.0%	High	1.26
19:00	UEFA Champions League	RasenBallsport LeipzigvPSV Eindhoven UEFA Champions League	1	50.7%	54%	-15.0%	Medium	1.81
19:00	UEFA Champions League	IntervClub Brugge KV UEFA Champions League	1	67.0%	76%	-37.6%	Medium	1.27
19:00	UEFA Champions League	Atletico MadridvManchester United UEFA Champions League	1	51.3%	50%	+7.0%	High	2.00
19:00	UEFA Champions League	VillarrealvNapoli UEFA Champions League	1	45.6%	44%	+5.3%	High	2.29
19:00	UEFA Champions League	GalatasarayvBarcelona UEFA Champions League	2	71.1%	76%	-17.7%	Medium	1.30
19:00	UEFA Champions League	VikingvBayern Munich UEFA Champions League	2	71.9%	88%	-63.5%	Medium	1.11
19:00	Algeria Ligue 1	USM AlgervJS Saoura Algeria Ligue 1	1	46.7%	—	—	Low	—
22:30	Brazil Serie B	Athletic ClubvLondrina Brazil Serie B	1	46.5%	44%	+11.2%	Low	2.20
23:00	Liga de Expansión MX	TapatíovTepatitlán Liga de Expansión MX	1	63.1%	60%	+13.5%	Low	1.58
23:30	Primera A	BucaramangavÁguilas Doradas Primera A	1	52.3%	46%	+23.7%	Low	2.01

Upcoming fixtures

First 60 of 70 fixtures on 14 October 2026 · odds are median de-vigged decimals

Costa Rica · Primera División 3 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
00:00	CS CartaginesvPuntarenas FC	1	Low	1.60	4.47	6.62
02:00	San CarlosvInter San Carlos	1	Low	2.41	3.35	3.49
23:00	Perez ZeledonvEscorpiones Belén	1	Low	—	—	—

World · CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
00:30	Boca JuniorsvVasco DA Gama	1	Low	2.01	3.37	4.85
22:00	Atletico-MGvAtletico Torque	1	Low	1.49	4.62	8.98

Colombia · Primera A 2 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
01:30	MillonariosvOnce Caldas	1	Low	1.86	3.83	4.95
21:30	JuniorvDeportivo Pereira	1	Low	1.33	6.10	12.09

Kazakhstan · Premier League 2 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
10:00	IrtyshvFC Astana	2	Low	3.40	3.68	2.30
11:00	AtyrauvYelimay Semey	2	Low	3.97	3.67	2.10

Turkey · 1. Lig 4 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
11:30	Batman Petrolsporvİstanbulspor	1	Low	1.76	4.21	5.16
14:00	ÜmraniyesporvBoluspor	1	Low	1.53	4.74	7.35
17:00	AntalyasporvKayserispor	2	Low	3.20	3.45	2.51
17:00	KeçiörengücüvIğdır FK	1	Low	2.13	3.82	3.72

Kosovo · Superliga 2 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.
12:00	FeronikelivLlapi	1	Low
16:00	DukagjinivVushtrria	1	Low

Kenya · Kenyan Premier League 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
12:00	AFC LeopardsvBandari	1	Low	2.21	3.17	4.33

Norway · 1. Division 8 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
13:00	StrommenvAsane	1	Low	—	—	—
17:00	StabaekvSandnes ULF	1	Low	1.52	5.44	6.26
17:00	StromsgodsetvKongsvinger	1	Low	1.96	4.56	3.69
17:00	HaugesundvLyn	1	Low	1.37	6.43	8.64
17:00	SogndalvODD Ballklubb	2	Low	3.26	4.30	2.17
17:00	BrynevRaufoss	1	Low	1.46	5.57	7.40
17:00	hoddvRanheim	2	Low	3.19	4.23	2.22
17:00	MossvEgersund	1	Low	2.28	4.12	3.14

Uganda · Premier League 2 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.
13:00	PolicevSC Villa	2	Low
13:00	Kigezi HomeBoyzvNEC	2	Low

Zambia · Super League 7 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.
13:00	Green EaglesvRed Arrows	X	Low
13:00	Mufulira WanderersvNkwazi	X	Low
13:00	NAPSA StarsvNkana	X	Low
13:00	Nchanga RangersvTrident	X	Low
13:00	Konkola BladesvMan Utd Zambia Academy	1	Low
13:00	Kansanshi DynamosvPower Dynamos	X	Low
13:00	Roan UnitedvZESCO United	1	Low

Estonia · Meistriliiga 2 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
15:00	Trans NarvavKuressaare	1	Low	2.37	3.78	3.20
16:00	PaidevTammeka	1	Low	1.82	4.30	4.60

Czech Republic · Czech Liga 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
16:00	Bohemians 1905vMlada Boleslav	1	Low	2.37	3.77	3.20

World · UEFA Champions League 9 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
16:45	FeyenoordvComo	2	Medium	3.67	4.31	2.02
16:45	Lask LinzvLiverpool	2	Medium	9.93	6.30	1.35
19:00	Manchester CityvParis Saint Germain	1	High	2.26	4.13	3.16
19:00	Aston VillavFenerbahçe	1	Medium	1.75	4.22	5.22
19:00	Bodo/GlimtvBorussia Dortmund	2	Medium	3.34	4.21	2.16
19:00	RomavReal Madrid	2	High	3.91	4.19	1.98
19:00	Real BetisvFC Porto	1	Medium	2.18	3.91	3.51
19:00	Shakhtar DonetskvAEK Athens FC	2	Low	2.79	3.63	2.73
19:00	Slovan BratislavavVfB Stuttgart	2	Medium	10.06	6.42	1.34

Malta · Premier League 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
17:00	MostavGzira United	1	Low	2.51	3.69	3.02

Germany · 3. Liga 5 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
17:00	Preußen MünstervFortuna Düsseldorf	2	Low	3.00	3.80	2.48
17:00	SV WehenvAlemannia Aachen	2	Low	2.52	3.86	2.90
17:00	FC Viktoria KölnvSG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	1	Low	1.86	4.38	4.27
17:00	VerlvSSV Jahn Regensburg	1	Low	2.21	4.23	3.21
17:00	Waldhof MannheimvFC Ingolstadt 04	1	Low	2.19	4.17	3.29

Algeria · Ligue 1 2 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
17:00	ES SetifvJS Kabylie	1	Low	2.45	3.23	3.55
17:00	TémouchentvMB Rouisset	1	Low	2.39	3.19	3.74

Portugal · Taça de Portugal 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.
18:00	União SantarémvGIL Vicente	1	Low

England · Championship 4 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
18:45	NorwichvSouthampton	2	Low	2.54	4.01	2.80
18:45	QPRvDerby	1	Low	1.87	4.05	4.60
18:45	PortsmouthvSheffield Utd	1	Low	2.41	3.64	3.22
19:00	LincolnvWest Ham	2	Low	4.94	4.29	1.77

Argentina · Liga Profesional Argentina 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
22:00	Sarmiento JuninvRiver Plate	2	Low	5.68	3.57	1.84

Guatemala · Liga Nacional 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.
23:00	ComunicacionesvAurora	1	Low

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Odds movement

Fair (de-vigged) home odds, first snapshot to latest.

VIK 21.95 ▲ +3.95

HAN 1.77 ▲ +0.14

ARS 1.29 ▼ -0.05

CAR 1.76 ▼ -0.20

SAR 2.19 ▼ -0.36

5 of today's fixtures with more than one recorded snapshot.

The model

Calibrated within 0.05 in 4/5 leagues and beating a frequency baseline in 5/5, over 5,256 played matches.

See the full backtest — including where it falls short.

Why can you trust us?

xG-based modelteam ratings built from expected goals, not league tables
Market-awareevery probability is blended with de-vigged bookmaker odds
Backtestedvalidated on 5,256 played matches before launch
No invented numbersevery figure on a page comes from the model or the market

How it works

Competitions

Premier League	predictions →
La Liga	predictions →
Bundesliga	predictions →
Serie A	predictions →
Ligue 1	predictions →
UEFA Champions League	predictions →
UEFA Europa League	predictions →
UEFA Europa Conference League	predictions →
All competitions →	predictions →

Prediction types

1X2 Predictions	→
Over/Under Predictions	→
BTTS Predictions	→
Correct Score Predictions	→
Double Chance Predictions	→
Draw Predictions	→
Goals Predictions	→
Accumulator Predictions	→
Handicap Predictions	→