Football Predictions Today

Model-driven 1X2, over/under, BTTS and correct-score probabilities for every fixture we cover — built from expected-goals ratings and de-vigged market odds, never from tips.

50matches today 4high confidence 13positive edges 12strong edges updated 2026-10-22T08:14:01Z UTC · kickoffs in your local time

Today, we cover 50 fixtures across 9 competitions, with our model providing predictions for each match. Notably, the Ajax vs Atalanta match in the UEFA Europa Conference League shows the widest model-vs-market gap, with the model rating Ajax at 78% compared to the market's 44%, resulting in an edge of +34.4 percentage points. Additionally, there are 13 value picks, 12 of which are classified as strong, and 4 high-confidence picks among today's selections.

First kick-offs: 13:00 Mornar v Mladost DG 13:00 Bihor Oradea v CSM Reşiţa 13:00 SC Villa v Mbarara City

Top model opportunities today

picks with an analysis page first, then largest model-vs-market edge on the 1X2 pick

UEFA Europa Conference League 19:00

Ajaxv

Atalanta

1 Pick: Ajax Medium

Model: 78%
Market: 44%
Edge: +34.4%
Best odds: 2.21

Bet Now Compare odds

UEFA Europa League 19:00

Celticv

Celta Vigo

1 Pick: Celtic Medium

Model: 69%
Market: 35%
Edge: +34.1%
Best odds: 2.74

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UEFA Europa League 19:00

Beşiktaşv

Crystal Palace

1 Pick: Beşiktaş Medium

Model: 69%
Market: 45%
Edge: +23.9%
Best odds: 2.17

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UEFA Europa League 19:00

Bournemouthv

AC Milan

1 Pick: Bournemouth High

Model: 63%
Market: 47%
Edge: +16.0%
Best odds: 2.14

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The strongest pick that already has an analysis page leads, so a larger edge listed here may simply be waiting for its fixture to enter our publication window.

Model vs market — value signals today

edge = model probability minus de-vigged market probability

13positive edges ≥ 2%

12strong edges ≥ 5%

+15.4%avg positive edge

1.80avg best price on picks

50fixtures with a model pick

Today at a glance

Highest win probability SC Villa v Mbarara City SC Villa · 75% Highest BTTS probability Al Shahaniya v Al Sadd 80% both teams score Most goals expected Al Shahaniya v Al Sadd 89% over 2.5 Top value pick Ajax v Atalanta +34.4% edge Biggest market move FK Jablonec v Brighton home 13.83 ▲ +5.81

All matches today

59 fixtures · 9 already played

Time	League	Match	Pick	Prob	Market	Edge	Conf	Best odds
13:00	Montenegro First League	MornarvMladost DG Montenegro First League	1	56.8%	56%	+1.9%	Low	1.65
13:00	Liga II	Bihor OradeavCSM Reşiţa Liga II	1	47.6%	45%	+11.8%	Low	2.20
13:00	Uganda Premier League	SC VillavMbarara City Uganda Premier League	1	75.0%	74%	+5.5%	Low	1.26
13:00	Uganda Premier League	Kigezi HomeBoyzvEntebbe UPPC Uganda Premier League	2	55.9%	—	—	Low	—
13:40	Saudi Arabia Pro League	Al-HazmvAl-Fayha Saudi Arabia Pro League	1	41.2%	42%	-1.4%	Low	2.31
14:30	Stars League	Al ShahaniyavAl Sadd Stars League	2	71.5%	72%	-2.1%	Low	1.37
14:30	UEFA Europa Conference League	Kairat AlmatyvPanathinaikos UEFA Europa Conference League	2	52.8%	58%	-20.4%	Low	1.69
14:45	Saudi Arabia Pro League	Al-FatehvAl Shabab Saudi Arabia Pro League	2	44.2%	44%	-0.1%	Low	2.18
15:00	Armenia Premier League	SardarapatvFC Urartu Armenia Premier League	2	47.8%	50%	-9.1%	Low	1.85
16:00	Malta Premier League	BirkirkaravFloriana Malta Premier League	2	41.7%	41%	+3.4%	Low	2.25
16:00	Montenegro First League	Buducnost PodgoricavArsenal Tivat Montenegro First League	1	65.0%	64%	+5.1%	Low	1.55
16:00	Uganda Premier League	KCCAvUPDF Uganda Premier League	1	64.9%	68%	-10.5%	Low	1.44
16:45	Stars League	Al-GharafavAl Ahli Doha Stars League	1	41.6%	48%	-23.7%	Low	2.18
16:45	UEFA Europa League	Lech PoznanvSunderland UEFA Europa League	2	44.5%	55%	-44.2%	Medium	1.74
16:45	UEFA Europa League	JuventusvRennes UEFA Europa League	1	67.4%	65%	+11.1%	High	1.57
16:45	UEFA Europa League	Dinamo ZagrebvNEC Nijmegen UEFA Europa League	1	64.1%	60%	+17.2%	Low	1.65
16:45	UEFA Europa League	Sturm GrazvMarseille UEFA Europa League	2	40.9%	49%	-31.7%	Medium	2.11
16:45	UEFA Europa League	Ferencvarosi TCvTorreense UEFA Europa League	1	69.3%	72%	-11.2%	Low	1.34
16:45	UEFA Europa League	OFIvBayer Leverkusen UEFA Europa League	2	71.2%	79%	-31.6%	Medium	1.24
16:45	UEFA Europa League	Union St. GilloisevHapoel Beer Sheva UEFA Europa League	1	70.7%	71%	-1.7%	Low	1.36
16:45	UEFA Europa League	Ararat-ArmeniavAZ Alkmaar UEFA Europa League	2	58.0%	67%	-34.4%	Low	1.55
16:45	UEFA Europa Conference League	FC NordsjaellandvCSKA Sofia UEFA Europa Conference League	1	61.9%	67%	-19.0%	Low	1.45
16:45	UEFA Europa Conference League	GetafevFC Lugano UEFA Europa Conference League	1	39.2%	49%	-40.5%	Medium	1.95
16:45	UEFA Europa Conference League	FK Crvena ZvezdavFC Copenhagen UEFA Europa Conference League	1	41.2%	42%	-2.3%	Low	2.33
16:45	UEFA Europa Conference League	TrabzonsporvHeart Of Midlothian UEFA Europa Conference League	1	73.5%	74%	-1.0%	Low	1.34
16:45	UEFA Europa Conference League	FK JablonecvBrighton UEFA Europa Conference League	2	71.2%	79%	-32.6%	Medium	1.30
16:45	UEFA Europa Conference League	Inter Club d'EscaldesvUniversitatea Craiova UEFA Europa Conference League	2	56.8%	59%	-9.5%	Low	1.63
16:45	UEFA Europa Conference League	PafosvRiga UEFA Europa Conference League	1	53.1%	59%	-23.5%	Low	1.65
16:45	UEFA Europa Conference League	FC Iberia 1999vMjallby AIF UEFA Europa Conference League	2	36.2%	40%	-16.7%	Low	2.43
16:45	UEFA Europa Conference League	Kauno ŽalgirisvBrann UEFA Europa Conference League	2	47.2%	55%	-33.1%	Low	1.81
18:00	Saudi Arabia Pro League	Al-Ahli JeddahvAl Khaleej Saihat Saudi Arabia Pro League	1	72.6%	73%	-0.6%	Low	1.35
18:30	Malta Premier League	HiberniansvGzira United Malta Premier League	1	46.5%	47%	-3.5%	Low	1.95
19:00	UEFA Europa League	BournemouthvAC Milan UEFA Europa League	1	51.4%	47%	+16.0%	High	2.14
19:00	UEFA Europa League	HoffenheimvLyon UEFA Europa League	1	45.9%	47%	-5.1%	High	2.07
19:00	UEFA Europa League	CelticvCelta Vigo UEFA Europa League	1	43.9%	35%	+34.1%	Medium	2.74
19:00	UEFA Europa League	LillestromvReal Sociedad UEFA Europa League	2	53.4%	65%	-47.5%	Medium	1.53
19:00	UEFA Europa League	JagielloniavAnderlecht UEFA Europa League	2	40.8%	42%	-6.3%	Low	2.29
19:00	UEFA Europa League	BeşiktaşvCrystal Palace UEFA Europa League	1	50.8%	45%	+23.9%	Medium	2.17
19:00	UEFA Europa League	Olympiakos PiraeusvSparta Praha UEFA Europa League	1	58.6%	63%	-16.4%	Low	1.56
19:00	UEFA Europa League	PlzenvLevski Sofia UEFA Europa League	1	48.6%	55%	-24.0%	Low	1.81
19:00	UEFA Europa League	Omonia NicosiavBenfica UEFA Europa League	2	60.9%	70%	-36.4%	Low	1.40
19:00	UEFA Europa League	CeljevRed Bull Salzburg UEFA Europa League	2	60.2%	62%	-7.9%	Low	1.65
19:00	UEFA Europa Conference League	MonacovFreiburg UEFA Europa Conference League	1	41.6%	43%	-6.6%	High	2.26
19:00	UEFA Europa Conference League	AjaxvAtalanta UEFA Europa Conference League	1	52.4%	44%	+34.4%	Medium	2.21
19:00	UEFA Europa Conference League	SC BragavGent UEFA Europa Conference League	1	44.0%	51%	-26.6%	Low	1.92
19:00	UEFA Europa Conference League	FC MidtjyllandvSt. Truiden UEFA Europa Conference League	1	59.9%	56%	+15.1%	Low	1.72
19:00	UEFA Europa Conference League	AarhusvEgnatia Rrogozhinë UEFA Europa Conference League	1	55.8%	64%	-32.5%	Low	1.55
19:00	UEFA Europa Conference League	Lincoln Red Imps FCvTwente UEFA Europa Conference League	2	70.5%	78%	-30.8%	Low	1.24
19:00	UEFA Europa Conference League	FC ThunvHNK Hajduk Split UEFA Europa Conference League	2	44.5%	41%	+15.6%	Low	2.42
19:00	UEFA Europa Conference League	Borac Banja LukavKuPS UEFA Europa Conference League	1	54.2%	52%	+7.5%	Low	1.95
0-0 FT	US Open Cup	Columbus CrewvSt. Louis City US Open Cup	1	39.6%	40%	-0.9%	Low	2.42
0-1 FT	CONMEBOL Libertadores	PalmeirasvFluminense CONMEBOL Libertadores	1	57.4%	54%	+14.1%	Low	2.01
2-2 FT	Liga MX	TolucavClub Tijuana Liga MX	1	69.1%	70%	-5.3%	Low	1.36
2-5 FT	Liga MX	AtlasvClub America Liga MX	2	45.0%	46%	-4.4%	Low	2.10
1-4 FT	Liga MX	PueblavMonterrey Liga MX	2	47.3%	52%	-16.9%	Low	1.85
2-1 FT	Primera A	Santa FevJaguares Primera A	1	69.9%	72%	-6.5%	Low	1.35
0-0 FT	Primera Division	FASvIsidro Metapán Primera Division	1	43.3%	42%	+4.7%	Low	2.20
2-0 FT	Liga MX	Santos LagunavU.N.A.M. - Pumas Liga MX	1	47.2%	42%	+21.0%	Low	2.30
1-2 FT	Liga MX	CF PachucavCruz Azul Liga MX	2	40.3%	41%	-3.7%	Low	2.31

Upcoming fixtures

First 60 of 128 fixtures on 23 October 2026 · odds are median de-vigged decimals

World · CONMEBOL Libertadores 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
00:30	FlamengovEstudiantes L.P.	1	Low	1.45	4.84	9.75

Colombia · Primera A 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
01:00	Atletico NacionalvDeportivo Pasto	1	Low	1.39	5.35	10.80

Mexico · Liga de Expansión MX 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.
01:00	Alebrijes de OaxacavCruz Azul Hidalgo	1	Low

Ukraine · Persha Liga 2 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.
08:00	ChernihivvAhrobiznes Volochysk	2	Low
10:00	Metal KharkivvYarud Mariupol'	2	Low

Australia · A-League 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
09:00	Brisbane RoarvPerth Glory	1	Low	2.25	3.74	3.47

Ukraine · Premier League 3 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
10:00	Dynamo KyivvKudrivka	1	Low	1.24	8.08	14.49
10:00	PolessyavObolon'-Brovar	1	Low	1.26	6.85	16.06
10:00	Veres RivnevKolos Kovalivka	2	Low	3.43	3.52	2.36

Azerbaijan · Premyer Liqa 2 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
11:00	ArazvQabala	1	Low	2.45	3.53	3.24
15:00	ZiravSumqayıt	1	Low	1.77	3.88	5.62

Armenia · Premier League 2 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
11:30	VanvArarat	1	Low	2.42	3.62	3.22
15:00	Pyunik YerevanvGandzasar	1	Low	—	—	—

Kenya · Kenyan Premier League 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.
12:00	Posta Rangers FCvKCB	2	Low

Montenegro · First League 2 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
13:00	BokeljvDečić	1	Low	2.94	3.27	2.83
16:00	JezerovPetrovac	1	Low	2.94	3.46	2.70

Tanzania · Premier League 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.
13:00	Polisi TanzaniavPamba Jiji	1	Low

Saudi Arabia · Pro League 2 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
13:30	Al-Faisaly FCvAl-Nassr	2	Low	—	—	—
15:30	Al-Ittihad FCvAl Diriyah	1	Low	2.11	4.11	3.53

Tunisia · Ligue 1 4 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.
13:30	CA BizertinvES Hammam-Sousse	1	Low
13:30	US Ben GuerdanevStade Tunisien	1	Low
13:30	AS MarsavCS Hammam-Lif	1	Low
13:30	Jeunesse Sportive OmranevOlympique Béja	1	Low

Algeria · Ligue 1 2 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.
14:15	Olympique AkbouvCS Constantine	1	Low
14:15	JS El BiarvMC Oran	1	Low

Qatar · Stars League 2 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
14:30	Al ShamalvQatar SC	1	Low	1.91	4.33	4.08
16:45	Al-SailiyavAl-Rayyan SC	2	Low	7.90	5.59	1.44

World · CAF Champions League 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.
14:30	Petro de LuandavScotland Mabvuku	X	Low

Romania · Liga I 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
15:00	FC BotosanivPetrolul Ploiesti	1	Low	2.00	3.89	4.13

World · CAF Confederation Cup 2 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
15:00	1º de AgostovVirunga	1	Low	—	—	—
16:00	Kaizer ChiefsvRed Arrows	1	Low	1.26	6.49	18.07

Czech Republic · FNL 5 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
15:30	Ústí nad LabemvKarviná	2	Low	3.35	3.91	2.24
16:00	Dukla PrahavKladno	1	Low	1.76	4.32	5.01
16:00	OpavavBaník Ostrava II	1	Low	2.39	3.86	3.11
16:00	TáborskovTřinec	1	Low	1.77	4.19	5.07
16:00	Vysočina JihlavavVlašim	1	Low	2.26	3.89	3.33

Poland · Ekstraklasa 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
16:00	Motor LublinvZaglebie Lubin	1	Low	2.09	3.82	3.85

Serbia · Super Liga 4 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
16:00	Radnicki NISvNovi Pazar	1	Low	2.56	3.52	3.07
16:00	ZemunvMacva	2	Low	2.94	3.31	2.80
16:00	Radnicki 1923vRadnik Surdulica	1	Low	1.93	3.64	4.82
16:00	IMT Novi BeogradvŽelezničar Pančevo	1	Low	2.81	3.55	2.75

Bulgaria · First League 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
16:00	CSKA 1948vBotev Plovdiv	1	Low	2.13	3.66	3.90

Estonia · Meistriliiga 2 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
16:00	TammekavTrans Narva	1	Low	2.24	3.91	3.35
16:00	Nõmme UnitedvVaprus	1	Low	2.27	3.83	3.36

Denmark · 1. Division 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
16:00	HobrovVendsyssel FF	1	Low	2.47	3.67	3.09

Poland · I Liga 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
16:00	Polonia WarszawavMiedz Legnica	1	Low	2.11	3.92	3.68

Kosovo · Superliga 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.
16:00	GjilanivLlapi	1	Low

Germany · 2. Bundesliga 2 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
16:30	BochumvWolfsburg	2	Low	3.25	4.02	2.25
16:30	DarmstadtvSt. Pauli	2	Low	3.20	3.76	2.37

Austria · 2. Liga 5 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
16:30	SV KapfenbergvSKN ST. Polten	2	Low	5.34	4.65	1.67
16:30	SKU AmstettenvRapid Wien II	1	Low	1.62	4.86	5.65
16:30	Austria Vienna (Am)vSturm Graz II	1	Low	—	—	—
16:30	First ViennavFloridsdorfer AC	1	Low	1.80	4.09	5.02
16:30	WSPG WelsvVoitsberg	2	Low	2.95	3.95	2.45

Turkey · Süper Lig 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
17:00	AlanyasporvKocaelispor	1	Low	2.11	3.42	4.27

Denmark · Superliga 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
17:00	Randers FCvBrondby	2	Low	3.80	3.93	2.08

Sweden · Allsvenskan 2 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
17:00	IF ElfsborgvMalmo FF	1	Low	2.20	3.81	3.54
17:00	Vasteras SK FKvHalmstad	1	Low	1.80	4.25	4.77

Germany · 3. Liga 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
17:00	Rot-Weiß EssenvSSV Jahn Regensburg	1	Low	1.75	4.54	4.81

Turkey · 1. Lig 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
17:00	BolusporvVanspor FK	2	Low	4.94	4.11	1.80

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Odds movement

Fair (de-vigged) home odds, first snapshot to latest.

FK 13.83 ▲ +5.81

OFI 13.12 ▲ +4.10

TRA 1.36 ▼ -0.15

FER 1.39 ▼ -0.07

CEL 6.16 ▲ +1.77

5 of today's fixtures with more than one recorded snapshot.

The model

Calibrated within 0.05 in 4/5 leagues and beating a frequency baseline in 5/5, over 5,256 played matches.

See the full backtest — including where it falls short.

Why can you trust us?

xG-based modelteam ratings built from expected goals, not league tables
Market-awareevery probability is blended with de-vigged bookmaker odds
Backtestedvalidated on 5,256 played matches before launch
No invented numbersevery figure on a page comes from the model or the market

How it works

Recent results

predicted vs actual

Mexico · Liga MX 4 matches

Date	Match	Result	Pick	Conf.
03:10	CF PachucavCruz Azul	1–2	2✓	Low	→
03:10	Santos LagunavU.N.A.M. - Pumas	2–0	1✓	Low	→
01:00	PueblavMonterrey	1–4	2✓	Low	→
01:00	AtlasvClub America	2–5	2✓	Low	→

El Salvador · Primera Division 1 match

Date	Match	Result	Pick	Conf.
01:30	FASvIsidro Metapán	0–0	1✗	Low	→

Colombia · Primera A 1 match

Date	Match	Result	Pick	Conf.
01:20	Santa FevJaguares	2–1	1✓	Low	→

Competitions

Premier League	predictions →
La Liga	predictions →
Bundesliga	predictions →
Serie A	predictions →
Ligue 1	predictions →
UEFA Champions League	predictions →
UEFA Europa League	predictions →
UEFA Europa Conference League	predictions →
All competitions →	predictions →

Prediction types

1X2 Predictions	→
Over/Under Predictions	→
BTTS Predictions	→
Correct Score Predictions	→
Double Chance Predictions	→
Draw Predictions	→
Goals Predictions	→
Accumulator Predictions	→
Handicap Predictions	→