Football Predictions Today

Model-driven 1X2, over/under, BTTS and correct-score probabilities for every fixture we cover — built from expected-goals ratings and de-vigged market odds, never from tips.

16matches today 2high confidence 5positive edges 3strong edges updated 2026-10-19T16:17:14Z UTC · kickoffs in your local time

Our engine has priced 16 of today's 16 fixtures across 14 competitions and disagrees with the bookmakers enough to flag 5 value picks. An edge is a statement about price, not about the result: a pick with a large edge still loses most of the time when its probability is low. The widest gap today: Parma Calcio 1913 v Torino, where the model rates Torino 49% against the market's 39%. Every number on this page comes from the same two inputs — xG-based team ratings and de-vigged bookmaker odds — so you can check our work on any methodology claim.

First kick-offs: 18:30 Celta de Vigo II v Tenerife 18:30 San Telmo v Defensores De Belgrano 18:45 Parma Calcio 1913 v Torino

Top model opportunities today

picks with an analysis page first, then largest model-vs-market edge on the 1X2 pick

Serie A 18:45

Parma Calcio 1913v

Torino

2 Pick: Torino High

Model: 49%
Market: 39%
Edge: +10.2%
Best odds: 2.55

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Segunda División 18:30

Celta de Vigo IIv

Tenerife

1 Pick: Celta de Vigo II Low

Model: 47%
Market: 36%
Edge: +10.9%
Best odds: 2.76

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Ligue 2 18:45

Rodezv

Montpellier

2 Pick: Montpellier Low

Model: 47%
Market: 40%
Edge: +7.4%
Best odds: 2.44

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Liga Profesional Argentina 22:00

Sarmiento Juninv

Barracas Central

1 Pick: Sarmiento Junin Low

Model: 45%
Market: 41%
Edge: +4.6%
Best odds: 2.38

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The strongest pick that already has an analysis page leads, so a larger edge listed here may simply be waiting for its fixture to enter our publication window.

Model vs market — value signals today

edge = model probability minus de-vigged market probability

5positive edges ≥ 2%

3strong edges ≥ 5%

+7.5%avg positive edge

2.11avg best price on picks

16fixtures with a model pick

Today at a glance

Highest win probability Tottenham v Coventry Tottenham · 58% Highest BTTS probability Fram Reykjavik v IA Akranes 81% both teams score Most goals expected Fram Reykjavik v IA Akranes 83% over 2.5 Top value pick Parma Calcio 1913 v Torino +10.2% edge Biggest market move San Telmo v Defensores De Belgrano home 3.57 ▲ +0.58

All matches today

57 fixtures · 41 already played

Time	League	Match	Pick	Prob	Market	Edge	Conf	Best odds
18:30	Segunda División	Celta de Vigo IIvTenerife Segunda División	1	38.5%	36%	+10.9%	Low	2.76
18:30	Primera Nacional	San TelmovDefensores De Belgrano Primera Nacional	X	38.4%	42%	-12.8%	Low	2.63
18:45	Serie A	Parma Calcio 1913vTorino Serie A	2	41.6%	39%	+10.2%	High	2.55
18:45	Premier Division	WaterfordvGalway United Premier Division	1	47.1%	48%	-3.3%	Low	1.98
18:45	Ligue 2	RodezvMontpellier Ligue 2	2	41.5%	40%	+7.4%	Low	2.44
19:00	La Liga	GetafevRayo Vallecano La Liga	2	34.6%	36%	-6.7%	High	2.70
19:00	Premier League	TottenhamvCoventry Premier League	1	57.8%	61%	-14.6%	Medium	1.60
19:00	Premier Division	Derry CityvSt Patrick's Athl. Premier Division	2	45.1%	44%	+4.5%	Low	2.18
19:15	Primeira Liga	SC BragavGIL Vicente Primeira Liga	1	54.9%	61%	-25.9%	Low	1.57
19:15	Úrvalsdeild	Fram ReykjavikvIA Akranes Úrvalsdeild	1	49.7%	51%	-5.8%	Low	1.84
20:30	Liga Pro	Mushuc Runa SCvOrense SC Liga Pro	1	49.1%	49%	+1.0%	Low	1.93
22:00	Liga Profesional Argentina	Newells Old BoysvCentral Cordoba de Santiago Liga Profesional Argentina	1	50.5%	50%	+0.4%	Low	1.90
22:00	Liga Profesional Argentina	Sarmiento JuninvBarracas Central Liga Profesional Argentina	1	41.9%	41%	+4.6%	Low	2.38
22:30	Brazil Serie B	GoiasvNautico Recife Brazil Serie B	1	53.4%	54%	-2.5%	Low	1.78
23:00	Brazil Serie A	CorinthiansvVitoria Brazil Serie A	1	54.0%	61%	-26.1%	Low	1.62
23:00	Uruguay Primera División	Club NacionalvDeportivo Maldonado Uruguay Primera División	1	45.2%	50%	-18.8%	Low	1.91
1-1 FT	Guatemala Liga Nacional	MunicipalvGuastatoya Guatemala Liga Nacional	1	64.9%	65%	-0.4%	Low	1.42
2-1 FT	Liga MX	MonterreyvCF Pachuca Liga MX	1	53.4%	58%	-17.4%	Low	1.72
0-0 FT	Primera A	Deportivo CalivJunior Primera A	1	54.4%	49%	+21.2%	Low	1.98
2-1 FT	Guatemala Liga Nacional	MarquensevSuchitepéquez Guatemala Liga Nacional	1	65.8%	64%	+6.6%	Low	1.42
2-1 FT	Ukraine Premier League	FC KharkivvLivyi Bereh Ukraine Premier League	1	58.4%	62%	-14.9%	Low	1.53
2-1 FT	Kenyan Premier League	Mara SugarvMombasa Elite Kenyan Premier League	1	47.7%	52%	-18.3%	Low	1.78
1-1 FT	Super League 2	Niki VolosvPanionios Super League 2	1	35.2%	39%	-14.9%	Low	2.46
0-1 FT	Kosovo Superliga	BallkanivPrishtina Kosovo Superliga	2	45.7%	46%	-1.2%	Low	1.95
2-1 FT	Super League 2	PAOK IIvApollon Pontou Super League 2	1	45.5%	48%	-11.4%	Low	1.98
2-3 FT	Montenegro First League	PetrovacvOtrant-Olympic Montenegro First League	1	35.9%	39%	-13.4%	Low	2.32
1-1 FT	Kenyan Premier League	Bandariv3K Kenyan Premier League	1	44.2%	50%	-21.8%	Low	1.82
0-2 FT	Egypt Premier League	El Gouna FCvSmouha SC Egypt Premier League	2	38.1%	42%	-14.3%	Low	2.32
1-2 FT	1. Lig	Fatih KaragümrükvKeçiörengücü 1. Lig	1	36.3%	39%	-9.7%	Low	2.46
3-4 FT	1. Lig	Manisa F.K.vMuğlaspor 1. Lig	1	42.4%	40%	+9.8%	Low	2.36
2-2 FT	Liga I	Universitatea ClujvArges Pitesti Liga I	1	56.7%	55%	+7.4%	Low	1.78
2-1 FT	Virsliga	BFC DaugavpilsvAuda Virsliga	2	39.4%	43%	-13.3%	Low	2.16
0-0 FT	Cyprus 1. Division	PafosvApoel Nicosia Cyprus 1. Division	1	50.0%	49%	+3.7%	Low	1.95
2-3 FT	Saudi Arabia Pro League	Al-FayhavAl-Ahli Jeddah Saudi Arabia Pro League	2	69.6%	—	—	Low	1.38
0-1 FT	A Lyga	Suduva MarijampolevKauno Žalgiris A Lyga	2	44.4%	48%	-13.9%	Low	1.94
2-0 FT	Virsliga	Rīgas FSvTukums Virsliga	1	85.8%	86%	-1.4%	Low	1.10
2-2 FT	Cyprus 1. Division	Omonia NicosiavOlympiakos Cyprus 1. Division	1	74.1%	74%	-0.8%	Low	1.27
4-0 FT	Montenegro First League	SutjeskavBokelj Montenegro First League	1	48.4%	54%	-24.0%	Low	1.75
2-0 FT	I Liga	NiecieczavPuszcza Niepołomice I Liga	1	51.0%	52%	-4.3%	Low	1.83
1-1 FT	Kosovo Superliga	DukagjinivDrenica Skënderaj Kosovo Superliga	1	51.7%	54%	-9.3%	Low	1.70
4-0 FT	Serie A	MonzavCagliari Serie A	1	42.2%	41%	+4.0%	Medium	2.45
2-0 FT	Süper Lig	TrabzonsporvBeşiktaş Süper Lig	1	38.6%	39%	+0.4%	Low	2.58
1-2 FT	Denmark Superliga	ViborgvFC Midtjylland Denmark Superliga	2	42.3%	41%	+6.9%	Low	2.42
1-2 FT	Allsvenskan	Degerfors IFvKalmar FF Allsvenskan	1	35.6%	32%	+13.3%	Low	3.02
1-0 FT	Ekstraklasa	Wisla PlockvRadomiak Radom Ekstraklasa	1	51.5%	50%	+5.8%	Low	1.90
1-1 FT	Egypt Premier League	AL MasryvAbu Qair Semad Egypt Premier League	1	57.8%	61%	-13.4%	Low	1.53
0-3 FT	Egypt Premier League	EnppivEl Mokawloon Egypt Premier League	2	38.2%	33%	+19.4%	Low	2.91
2-0 FT	1. Lig	BursasporvPendikspor 1. Lig	1	66.1%	64%	+8.4%	Low	1.45
4-2 FT	1. Lig	Esenler EroksporvMardin 1969 1. Lig	1	39.9%	46%	-23.8%	Low	2.07
0-0 FT	Superettan	Varbergs BoIS FCvHelsingborg Superettan	1	52.4%	51%	+5.7%	Low	1.90
0-0 FT	Ligat Ha'al	Beitar JerusalemvMaccabi Tel Aviv Ligat Ha'al	2	44.5%	44%	+0.8%	Low	2.13
1-2 FT	Liga I	FC VoluntarivFCSB Liga I	2	51.6%	60%	-32.0%	Low	1.60
1-0 FT	Saudi Arabia Pro League	Al-Hilal Saudi FCvAl-Hazm Saudi Arabia Pro League	1	85.4%	88%	-9.6%	Low	1.09
2-2 FT	Saudi Arabia Pro League	Al ShababvAl-Faisaly FC Saudi Arabia Pro League	1	55.0%	59%	-15.1%	Low	1.65
0-1 FT	Eerste Divisie	Jong PSV U21vDordrecht Eerste Divisie	1	48.1%	44%	+15.4%	Low	2.19
2-1 FT	Eerste Divisie	Jong AjaxvDe Graafschap Eerste Divisie	2	40.7%	39%	+4.9%	Low	2.40
1-2 FT	Eerste Divisie	Jong UtrechtvRoda Eerste Divisie	2	48.1%	52%	-16.8%	Low	1.84

Upcoming fixtures

First 60 of 70 fixtures on 20 October 2026 · odds are median de-vigged decimals

Costa Rica · Primera División 2 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
00:00	Sporting San JosevSan Carlos	1	Low	1.80	3.89	5.33
02:00	Escorpiones BelénvPuntarenas FC	1	Low	—	—	—

Argentina · Liga Profesional Argentina 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
00:15	Deportivo RiestravUnion Santa Fe	1	Low	2.35	3.09	3.99

Guatemala · Liga Nacional 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
01:00	Antigua GFCvXelajú	1	Low	1.88	3.92	4.70

Colombia · Primera A 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
01:05	Deportivo PastovAlianza Valledupar	1	Low	1.86	3.75	5.14

Kenya · Kenyan Premier League 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
12:00	PolicevAFC Leopards	1	Low	2.66	3.07	3.35

Uganda · Premier League 2 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.
13:00	MaroonsvKataka	1	Low
13:00	Blacks PowervURA	1	Low

World · CAF Champions League 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
13:00	15 de AgostovSimba	2	Low	14.73	6.57	1.28

Egypt · Premier League 4 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
14:00	Asyut PetrolvZamalek SC	2	Low	8.72	4.34	1.53
14:00	MasrvFuture FC	1	Low	2.60	3.08	3.44
15:00	Wadi DeglavNational Bank of Egypt	2	Low	3.14	3.28	2.65
17:00	El GeishvPyramids FC	2	Low	7.06	4.04	1.64

Romania · Liga II 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
14:30	ASA Targu MuresvChindia Targoviste	2	Low	3.72	3.56	2.22

Saudi Arabia · Pro League 4 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
15:00	Al DiriyahvAl Riyadh	1	Low	1.58	4.68	6.46
15:10	Al TaawonvAl-Qadisiyah FC	2	Low	5.99	5.00	1.58
18:00	Al-EttifaqvAl-Ittihad FC	2	Low	3.29	4.22	2.18
18:00	Al-NassrvNEOM	1	Low	1.50	5.43	6.73

World · UEFA Champions League 4 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
16:45	FenerbahçevSlavia Praha	1	Low	1.75	4.39	4.97
16:45	Sabah FAvBorussia Dortmund	2	Medium	9.57	6.51	1.35
19:00	LiverpoolvVillarreal	1	High	1.55	5.01	6.48
19:00	Manchester CityvAEK Athens FC	1	Medium	1.14	12.36	23.94

Sweden · Superettan 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
17:00	IFK NorrkopingvOrebro SK	1	Low	1.90	4.13	4.34

Northern Ireland · Premiership 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
18:45	LarnevLinfield	1	Low	2.11	3.64	3.98

England · Championship 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
18:45	Wolverhampton WanderersvPortsmouth	1	Low	1.69	4.35	5.57

England · League One 11 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
18:45	HuddersfieldvPeterborough	1	Low	1.67	4.74	5.30
18:45	Burton AlbionvBradford	2	Low	3.79	3.58	2.19
18:45	AFC WimbledonvMansfield Town	2	Low	3.16	3.60	2.46
18:45	Oxford UnitedvWigan	1	Low	2.04	3.85	4.02
18:45	DoncastervStockport County	2	Low	3.85	4.05	2.03
18:45	BlackpoolvMilton Keynes Dons	1	Low	2.56	3.91	2.83
18:45	LutonvBarnsley	1	Low	1.61	4.95	5.69
18:45	StevenagevPlymouth	2	Low	2.77	3.56	2.79
18:45	Cambridge UnitedvWycombe	1	Low	2.34	3.78	3.24
18:45	Notts CountyvSheffield Wednesday	2	Low	3.39	3.69	2.30
18:45	BromleyvLeicester	2	Low	4.38	4.27	1.86

England · League Two 12 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
18:45	RotherhamvNewport County	1	Low	2.23	3.62	3.65
18:45	Bristol RoversvSalford City	2	Low	2.75	3.68	2.75
18:45	NorthamptonvTranmere	1	Low	2.41	3.54	3.30
18:45	RochdalevGrimsby	2	Low	3.42	3.77	2.26
18:45	WalsallvOldham	1	Low	2.52	3.69	3.01
18:45	ChesterfieldvColchester	1	Low	1.69	4.47	5.41
18:45	Crawley TownvShrewsbury	2	Low	2.96	3.57	2.61
18:45	Exeter CityvCrewe	1	Low	2.70	3.32	3.04
18:45	BarnetvSwindon Town	1	Low	1.61	4.73	5.93
18:45	CheltenhamvFleetwood Town	2	Low	3.07	3.62	2.51
18:45	YorkvAccrington ST	1	Low	1.79	4.31	4.79
19:00	GillinghamvPort Vale	1	Low	3.10	3.49	2.56

Scotland · Championship 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
18:45	DunfermlinevPartick	2	Low	3.06	3.43	2.62

England · FA Cup 11 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
18:45	Yeovil TownvLeatherhead	2	Low	—	—	—
18:45	Forest GreenvChesham United	1	Low	—	—	—
18:45	Harrogate TownvBury	1	Low	1.71	4.41	5.34
18:45	AlvechurchvSpalding United	1	Low	—	—	—
18:45	Cray WanderersvBedford Town	1	Low	—	—	—
18:45	Stafford RangersvGateshead	1	Low	—	—	—
18:45	United of ManchestervAltrincham	2	Low	3.93	4.07	2.00
18:45	Gloucester CityvBarrow	1	Low	—	—	—
18:45	Anstey NomadsvMacclesfield	2	Low	4.18	4.10	1.93
18:45	Tadley CallevavAldershot Town	1	Low	—	—	—
18:45	Worcester CityvChorley	1	Low	—	—	—

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Odds movement

Fair (de-vigged) home odds, first snapshot to latest.

COR 1.65 ▼ -0.10

SAN 3.57 ▲ +0.58

MUS 2.05 ▲ +0.14

GOI 1.85 ▼ -0.12

WAT 2.09 ▼ -0.13

5 of today's fixtures with more than one recorded snapshot.

The model

Calibrated within 0.05 in 4/5 leagues and beating a frequency baseline in 5/5, over 5,256 played matches.

See the full backtest — including where it falls short.

Why can you trust us?

xG-based modelteam ratings built from expected goals, not league tables
Market-awareevery probability is blended with de-vigged bookmaker odds
Backtestedvalidated on 5,256 played matches before launch
No invented numbersevery figure on a page comes from the model or the market

How it works

Recent results

predicted vs actual

Netherlands · Eerste Divisie 3 matches

Date	Match	Result	Pick	Conf.
18:00	Jong UtrechtvRoda	1–2	2✓	Low	→
18:00	Jong AjaxvDe Graafschap	2–1	2✗	Low	→
18:00	Jong PSV U21vDordrecht	0–1	1✗	Low	→

Saudi Arabia · Pro League 2 matches

Date	Match	Result	Pick	Conf.
18:00	Al ShababvAl-Faisaly FC	2–2	1✗	Low	→
18:00	Al-Hilal Saudi FCvAl-Hazm	1–0	1✓	Low	→

Romania · Liga I 1 match

Date	Match	Result	Pick	Conf.
18:00	FC VoluntarivFCSB	1–2	2✓	Low	→

Competitions

Premier League	predictions →
La Liga	predictions →
Bundesliga	predictions →
Serie A	predictions →
Ligue 1	predictions →
UEFA Champions League	predictions →
UEFA Europa League	predictions →
UEFA Europa Conference League	predictions →
All competitions →	predictions →

Prediction types

1X2 Predictions	→
Over/Under Predictions	→
BTTS Predictions	→
Correct Score Predictions	→
Double Chance Predictions	→
Draw Predictions	→
Goals Predictions	→
Accumulator Predictions	→
Handicap Predictions	→