Football Predictions Today

Model-driven 1X2, over/under, BTTS and correct-score probabilities for every fixture we cover — built from expected-goals ratings and de-vigged market odds, never from tips.

58matches today 4high confidence 14positive edges 13strong edges updated 2026-10-21T16:16:49Z UTC · kickoffs in your local time

Our engine has priced 58 of today's 58 fixtures across 13 competitions and disagrees with the bookmakers enough to flag 14 value picks. An edge is a statement about price, not about the result: a pick with a large edge still loses most of the time when its probability is low. The widest gap today: Celtic v Celta Vigo, where the model rates Celtic 69% against the market's 35%. Every number on this page comes from the same two inputs — xG-based team ratings and de-vigged bookmaker odds — so you can check our work on any methodology claim.

First kick-offs: 00:30 Palmeiras v Fluminense 01:00 Toluca v Club Tijuana 01:00 Atlas v Club America

Top model opportunities today

picks with an analysis page first, then largest model-vs-market edge on the 1X2 pick

UEFA Europa League 19:00

Celticv

Celta Vigo

1 Pick: Celtic Medium

Model: 69%
Market: 35%
Edge: +34.2%
Best odds: 2.74

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UEFA Europa Conference League 19:00

Ajaxv

Atalanta

1 Pick: Ajax Medium

Model: 78%
Market: 45%
Edge: +33.5%
Best odds: 2.21

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UEFA Europa League 19:00

Beşiktaşv

Crystal Palace

1 Pick: Beşiktaş Medium

Model: 69%
Market: 45%
Edge: +23.5%
Best odds: 2.17

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UEFA Europa League 19:00

Bournemouthv

AC Milan

1 Pick: Bournemouth High

Model: 63%
Market: 45%
Edge: +17.9%
Best odds: 2.15

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The strongest pick that already has an analysis page leads, so a larger edge listed here may simply be waiting for its fixture to enter our publication window.

Model vs market — value signals today

edge = model probability minus de-vigged market probability

14positive edges ≥ 2%

13strong edges ≥ 5%

+17.7%avg positive edge

1.83avg best price on picks

58fixtures with a model pick

Today at a glance

Highest win probability SC Villa v Mbarara City SC Villa · 79% Highest BTTS probability Al Shahaniya v Al Sadd 80% both teams score Most goals expected Al Shahaniya v Al Sadd 89% over 2.5 Top value pick Celtic v Celta Vigo +34.2% edge Biggest market move OFI v Bayer Leverkusen home 11.79 ▲ +2.76

All matches today

59 fixtures · 1 already played

Time	League	Match	Pick	Prob	Market	Edge	Conf	Best odds
00:30	CONMEBOL Libertadores	PalmeirasvFluminense CONMEBOL Libertadores	1	57.4%	54%	+14.1%	Low	2.01
01:00	Liga MX	TolucavClub Tijuana Liga MX	1	69.1%	70%	-5.3%	Low	1.36
01:00	Liga MX	AtlasvClub America Liga MX	2	45.0%	46%	-4.4%	Low	2.10
01:00	Liga MX	PueblavMonterrey Liga MX	2	47.3%	52%	-16.9%	Low	1.85
01:20	Primera A	Santa FevJaguares Primera A	1	69.9%	72%	-6.5%	Low	1.35
01:30	Primera Division	FASvIsidro Metapán Primera Division	1	43.3%	42%	+4.7%	Low	2.20
03:10	Liga MX	Santos LagunavU.N.A.M. - Pumas Liga MX	1	47.2%	42%	+21.0%	Low	2.30
03:10	Liga MX	CF PachucavCruz Azul Liga MX	2	40.3%	41%	-3.7%	Low	2.31
13:00	Montenegro First League	MornarvMladost DG Montenegro First League	1	62.4%	64%	-5.6%	Low	1.47
13:00	Liga II	Bihor OradeavCSM Reşiţa Liga II	1	44.9%	41%	+15.5%	Low	2.21
13:00	Uganda Premier League	SC VillavMbarara City Uganda Premier League	1	79.1%	—	—	Low	—
13:00	Uganda Premier League	Kigezi HomeBoyzvEntebbe UPPC Uganda Premier League	2	55.9%	—	—	Low	—
13:40	Saudi Arabia Pro League	Al-HazmvAl-Fayha Saudi Arabia Pro League	1	41.2%	42%	-1.4%	Low	2.31
14:30	Stars League	Al ShahaniyavAl Sadd Stars League	2	69.7%	70%	+0.2%	Low	1.37
14:30	UEFA Europa Conference League	Kairat AlmatyvPanathinaikos UEFA Europa Conference League	2	52.6%	58%	-20.1%	Low	1.69
14:45	Saudi Arabia Pro League	Al-FatehvAl Shabab Saudi Arabia Pro League	2	44.3%	44%	-0.2%	Low	2.18
15:00	Armenia Premier League	SardarapatvFC Urartu Armenia Premier League	2	48.3%	51%	-9.9%	Low	1.85
16:00	Malta Premier League	BirkirkaravFloriana Malta Premier League	2	43.4%	43%	+0.8%	Low	2.15
16:00	Montenegro First League	Buducnost PodgoricavArsenal Tivat Montenegro First League	1	62.1%	60%	+8.9%	Low	1.57
16:00	Uganda Premier League	KCCAvUPDF Uganda Premier League	1	57.1%	—	—	Low	—
16:45	Stars League	Al-GharafavAl Ahli Doha Stars League	1	38.3%	43%	-19.2%	Low	2.18
16:45	UEFA Europa League	Lech PoznanvSunderland UEFA Europa League	2	45.1%	56%	-45.0%	Medium	1.70
16:45	UEFA Europa League	JuventusvRennes UEFA Europa League	1	64.3%	60%	+15.3%	High	1.61
16:45	UEFA Europa League	Dinamo ZagrebvNEC Nijmegen UEFA Europa League	1	62.5%	58%	+19.3%	Low	1.69
16:45	UEFA Europa League	Sturm GrazvMarseille UEFA Europa League	2	39.1%	46%	-29.3%	Medium	2.11
16:45	UEFA Europa League	Ferencvarosi TCvTorreense UEFA Europa League	1	68.3%	71%	-9.9%	Low	1.37
16:45	UEFA Europa League	OFIvBayer Leverkusen UEFA Europa League	2	69.9%	77%	-29.9%	Medium	1.25
16:45	UEFA Europa League	Union St. GilloisevHapoel Beer Sheva UEFA Europa League	1	71.0%	72%	-2.1%	Low	1.34
16:45	UEFA Europa League	Ararat-ArmeniavAZ Alkmaar UEFA Europa League	2	54.7%	62%	-30.1%	Low	1.55
16:45	UEFA Europa Conference League	FC NordsjaellandvCSKA Sofia UEFA Europa Conference League	1	62.8%	68%	-20.2%	Low	1.43
16:45	UEFA Europa Conference League	GetafevFC Lugano UEFA Europa Conference League	1	41.8%	53%	-44.0%	Medium	1.85
16:45	UEFA Europa Conference League	FK Crvena ZvezdavFC Copenhagen UEFA Europa Conference League	1	41.5%	42%	-2.6%	Low	2.33
16:45	UEFA Europa Conference League	TrabzonsporvHeart Of Midlothian UEFA Europa Conference League	1	71.9%	72%	+1.1%	Low	1.34
16:45	UEFA Europa Conference League	FK JablonecvBrighton UEFA Europa Conference League	2	66.7%	73%	-26.7%	Medium	1.30
16:45	UEFA Europa Conference League	Inter Club d'EscaldesvUniversitatea Craiova UEFA Europa Conference League	2	56.5%	59%	-9.0%	Low	1.63
16:45	UEFA Europa Conference League	PafosvRiga UEFA Europa Conference League	1	52.5%	58%	-22.6%	Low	1.65
16:45	UEFA Europa Conference League	FC Iberia 1999vMjallby AIF UEFA Europa Conference League	2	37.7%	42%	-18.7%	Low	2.27
16:45	UEFA Europa Conference League	Kauno ŽalgirisvBrann UEFA Europa Conference League	2	45.7%	54%	-31.2%	Low	1.81
18:00	Saudi Arabia Pro League	Al-Ahli JeddahvAl Khaleej Saihat Saudi Arabia Pro League	1	71.6%	71%	+0.8%	Low	1.35
18:30	Malta Premier League	HiberniansvGzira United Malta Premier League	1	47.4%	49%	-4.4%	Low	1.89
19:00	UEFA Europa League	BournemouthvAC Milan UEFA Europa League	1	49.9%	45%	+17.9%	High	2.15
19:00	UEFA Europa League	HoffenheimvLyon UEFA Europa League	1	45.9%	47%	-5.1%	High	2.07
19:00	UEFA Europa League	CelticvCelta Vigo UEFA Europa League	1	43.8%	35%	+34.2%	Medium	2.74
19:00	UEFA Europa League	LillestromvReal Sociedad UEFA Europa League	2	51.0%	62%	-44.4%	Medium	1.56
19:00	UEFA Europa League	JagielloniavAnderlecht UEFA Europa League	2	40.8%	42%	-6.3%	Low	2.29
19:00	UEFA Europa League	BeşiktaşvCrystal Palace UEFA Europa League	1	51.1%	45%	+23.5%	Medium	2.17
19:00	UEFA Europa League	Olympiakos PiraeusvSparta Praha UEFA Europa League	1	58.8%	63%	-16.6%	Low	1.53
19:00	UEFA Europa League	PlzenvLevski Sofia UEFA Europa League	1	47.6%	53%	-22.8%	Low	1.82
19:00	UEFA Europa League	Omonia NicosiavBenfica UEFA Europa League	2	59.8%	69%	-35.0%	Low	1.41
19:00	UEFA Europa League	CeljevRed Bull Salzburg UEFA Europa League	2	57.3%	58%	-4.0%	Low	1.65
19:00	UEFA Europa Conference League	MonacovFreiburg UEFA Europa Conference League	1	40.9%	42%	-5.7%	High	2.27
19:00	UEFA Europa Conference League	AjaxvAtalanta UEFA Europa Conference League	1	53.1%	45%	+33.5%	Medium	2.21
19:00	UEFA Europa Conference League	SC BragavGent UEFA Europa Conference League	1	47.6%	56%	-31.5%	Low	1.73
19:00	UEFA Europa Conference League	FC MidtjyllandvSt. Truiden UEFA Europa Conference League	1	60.8%	57%	+13.9%	Low	1.67
19:00	UEFA Europa Conference League	AarhusvEgnatia Rrogozhinë UEFA Europa Conference League	1	53.7%	61%	-29.8%	Low	1.57
19:00	UEFA Europa Conference League	Lincoln Red Imps FCvTwente UEFA Europa Conference League	2	69.9%	77%	-29.9%	Low	1.24
19:00	UEFA Europa Conference League	FC ThunvHNK Hajduk Split UEFA Europa Conference League	2	43.6%	39%	+16.8%	Low	2.52
19:00	UEFA Europa Conference League	Borac Banja LukavKuPS UEFA Europa Conference League	1	52.7%	50%	+9.6%	Low	1.95
0-0 FT	US Open Cup	Columbus CrewvSt. Louis City US Open Cup	1	39.6%	40%	-0.9%	Low	2.42

Upcoming fixtures

First 60 of 128 fixtures on 23 October 2026 · odds are median de-vigged decimals

World · CONMEBOL Libertadores 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
00:30	FlamengovEstudiantes L.P.	1	Low	1.45	4.82	9.74

Colombia · Primera A 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
01:00	Atletico NacionalvDeportivo Pasto	1	Low	1.39	5.36	10.83

Mexico · Liga de Expansión MX 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.
01:00	Alebrijes de OaxacavCruz Azul Hidalgo	1	Low

Ukraine · Persha Liga 2 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.
08:00	ChernihivvAhrobiznes Volochysk	2	Low
10:00	Metal KharkivvYarud Mariupol'	2	Low

Australia · A-League 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
09:00	Brisbane RoarvPerth Glory	1	Low	2.25	3.74	3.47

Ukraine · Premier League 3 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
10:00	Dynamo KyivvKudrivka	1	Low	1.30	6.77	12.44
10:00	PolessyavObolon'-Brovar	1	Low	1.32	5.93	13.42
10:00	Veres RivnevKolos Kovalivka	2	Low	3.45	3.42	2.39

Azerbaijan · Premyer Liqa 2 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
11:00	ArazvQabala	1	Low	2.46	3.59	3.17
15:00	ZiravSumqayıt	1	Low	1.90	3.65	4.97

Armenia · Premier League 2 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.
11:30	VanvArarat	2	Low
15:00	Pyunik YerevanvGandzasar	1	Low

Kenya · Kenyan Premier League 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.
12:00	Posta Rangers FCvKCB	2	Low

Montenegro · First League 2 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.
13:00	BokeljvDečić	1	Low
16:00	JezerovPetrovac	1	Low

Tanzania · Premier League 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.
13:00	Polisi TanzaniavPamba Jiji	1	Low

Saudi Arabia · Pro League 2 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
13:30	Al-Faisaly FCvAl-Nassr	2	Low	—	—	—
15:30	Al-Ittihad FCvAl Diriyah	1	Low	2.09	4.19	3.53

Tunisia · Ligue 1 4 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.
13:30	CA BizertinvES Hammam-Sousse	1	Low
13:30	US Ben GuerdanevStade Tunisien	1	Low
13:30	AS MarsavCS Hammam-Lif	1	Low
13:30	Jeunesse Sportive OmranevOlympique Béja	1	Low

Algeria · Ligue 1 2 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.
14:15	Olympique AkbouvCS Constantine	1	Low
14:15	JS El BiarvMC Oran	1	Low

Qatar · Stars League 2 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
14:30	Al ShamalvQatar SC	1	Low	1.91	4.33	4.08
16:45	Al-SailiyavAl-Rayyan SC	2	Low	7.66	5.47	1.46

World · CAF Champions League 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.
14:30	Petro de LuandavScotland Mabvuku	X	Low

Romania · Liga I 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
15:00	FC BotosanivPetrolul Ploiesti	1	Low	2.01	3.89	4.09

World · CAF Confederation Cup 2 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
15:00	1º de AgostovVirunga	1	Low	—	—	—
16:00	Kaizer ChiefsvRed Arrows	1	Low	1.26	6.49	18.07

Czech Republic · FNL 5 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
15:30	Ústí nad LabemvKarviná	2	Low	3.14	3.90	2.35
16:00	Dukla PrahavKladno	1	Low	1.72	4.37	5.30
16:00	OpavavBaník Ostrava II	1	Low	2.19	3.94	3.46
16:00	TáborskovTřinec	1	Low	1.78	4.13	5.07
16:00	Vysočina JihlavavVlašim	1	Low	2.25	3.92	3.34

Ghana · Premier League 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.
15:30	Hearts of OakvBasake Holy Stars	1	Low

Poland · Ekstraklasa 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
16:00	Motor LublinvZaglebie Lubin	1	Low	2.12	3.81	3.78

Serbia · Super Liga 4 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
16:00	Radnicki NISvNovi Pazar	1	Low	2.58	3.57	3.01
16:00	ZemunvMacva	2	Low	2.73	3.46	2.90
16:00	Radnicki 1923vRadnik Surdulica	1	Low	2.09	3.72	3.94
16:00	IMT Novi BeogradvŽelezničar Pančevo	1	Low	2.81	3.46	2.81

Bulgaria · First League 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
16:00	CSKA 1948vBotev Plovdiv	1	Low	2.23	3.62	3.65

Estonia · Meistriliiga 2 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
16:00	TammekavTrans Narva	1	Low	2.26	3.89	3.33
16:00	Nõmme UnitedvVaprus	1	Low	2.42	4.14	2.90

Denmark · 1. Division 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
16:00	HobrovVendsyssel FF	1	Low	2.47	3.68	3.09

Poland · I Liga 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
16:00	Polonia WarszawavMiedz Legnica	1	Low	2.13	3.96	3.61

Kosovo · Superliga 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.
16:00	GjilanivLlapi	1	Low

Germany · 2. Bundesliga 2 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
16:30	BochumvWolfsburg	2	Low	3.24	4.02	2.26
16:30	DarmstadtvSt. Pauli	2	Low	3.23	3.75	2.36

Austria · 2. Liga 5 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
16:30	SV KapfenbergvSKN ST. Polten	2	Low	5.24	4.73	1.67
16:30	SKU AmstettenvRapid Wien II	1	Low	1.62	4.94	5.49
16:30	Austria Vienna (Am)vSturm Graz II	1	Low	—	—	—
16:30	First ViennavFloridsdorfer AC	1	Low	1.88	3.96	4.62
16:30	WSPG WelsvVoitsberg	2	Low	2.95	3.96	2.44

Turkey · Süper Lig 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
17:00	AlanyasporvKocaelispor	1	Low	2.11	3.44	4.24

Denmark · Superliga 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
17:00	Randers FCvBrondby	2	Low	3.72	3.98	2.08

Sweden · Allsvenskan 2 matches

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
17:00	IF ElfsborgvMalmo FF	1	Low	2.18	3.85	3.56
17:00	Vasteras SK FKvHalmstad	1	Low	1.80	4.24	4.81

Germany · 3. Liga 1 match

Time	Match	Pick	Conf.	1	X	2
17:00	Rot-Weiß EssenvSSV Jahn Regensburg	1	Low	1.74	4.60	4.82

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Odds movement

Fair (de-vigged) home odds, first snapshot to latest.

OFI 11.79 ▲ +2.76

FK 10.41 ▲ +2.40

TOL 1.42 ▼ -0.13

FC 1.47 ▼ -0.14

TRA 1.40 ▼ -0.11

5 of today's fixtures with more than one recorded snapshot.

The model

Calibrated within 0.05 in 4/5 leagues and beating a frequency baseline in 5/5, over 5,256 played matches.

See the full backtest — including where it falls short.

Why can you trust us?

xG-based modelteam ratings built from expected goals, not league tables
Market-awareevery probability is blended with de-vigged bookmaker odds
Backtestedvalidated on 5,256 played matches before launch
No invented numbersevery figure on a page comes from the model or the market

How it works

Recent results

predicted vs actual

USA · US Open Cup 1 match

Date	Match	Result	Pick	Conf.
00:00	Columbus CrewvSt. Louis City	0–0	1✗	Low	→

Competitions

Premier League	predictions →
La Liga	predictions →
Bundesliga	predictions →
Serie A	predictions →
Ligue 1	predictions →
UEFA Champions League	predictions →
UEFA Europa League	predictions →
UEFA Europa Conference League	predictions →
All competitions →	predictions →

Prediction types

1X2 Predictions	→
Over/Under Predictions	→
BTTS Predictions	→
Correct Score Predictions	→
Double Chance Predictions	→
Draw Predictions	→
Goals Predictions	→
Accumulator Predictions	→
Handicap Predictions	→